Screenwriter

DONALD CLARKEis zeroing in on 2011's Oscar contenders

So, you’ve got the popcorn in the microwave. Various predictive charts from various broadsheet newspapers are spread out on the floor. Catty remarks about your least favourite starlet – “Ooo, which destitute crack whore did she rob that dress from?” – are fermenting in a fetid corner of your brain.

Yes, it’s Oscar time. There’s only 353 days to the 2011 ceremony, and the odds are already shortening in every race.

I know, I know. We did this joke last year and managed to get every single prediction wrong. Nine, one of our top tips for best picture, turned out to be too awful even for the easily dazzled Academy. Public Enemies, though a fine film, never really set in with punters or critics. Paul Greengrass's Green Zoneand Terrence Malick's Tree of Lifeweren't even released in 2010. The closest we came to a decent prophecy was our suggestion that Meryl Streep might win best actress for Julie & Julia.

See how clever we are at The Irish Times? We were able to predict that Meryl Streep would get nominated for an Oscar. I hereby forecast that, at some point in 2010, Jordan will appear on the cover of a supermarket tabloid. You just see if she doesn't.

Anyway, back to the arch Oscar preview. It's safe to say that Jeff Bridges is nearly certain to equal the achievements of Spencer Tracy and Tom Hanks by winning the best actor Oscar two years running. If he does triumph for the Coens' True Grit, then this will be the first time that the prize has gone to the lead actor in both a remake and (remember John Wayne with the reins between his teeth) the original film. Johnny Depp in Bruce Robinson's The Rum Diaryand Ryan Gosling in Derek Cianfrance's Blue Valentinewill have to make do with their nominations.

The best actress race is more fiercely fought. As you will be aware, a lot of money has been staked on Helen Mirren for her brassy performance as a brothel keeper in hubby Taylor Hackford's Love Ranch. Saoirse Ronan is back in gear for her turn in Peter Weir's brilliant The Way Back, but many are saying that she should be nominated in the best supporting category. Tilda Swinton is a very strong contender in Lynne Ramsay's adaptation of Lionel Shriver's We Need to Talk About Kevin.

But the favourite looks like the hitherto unknown Hailee Steinfeld for her key role in True Grit. (You will be aware, of course, that La Streep is largely shunning the sound stage in 2010.)

Once again, despite there being 10 nominations for best picture, the real shortlist is seen as those films whose directors receive a nod: The Coens' True Grit, Chris Nolan's Inception, Sylvain Chomet's The Illusionist, Julian Schnabel's Miral and – it's back – The Tree of Life.

Once again, we’re going to plump for Malick’s leisurely, philosophical (I bet) epic of 20th century rural life. Heck, the blasted thing’s bound to turn up eventually.