Next year is unlikely to be a dull 12 months for the EU. Apart from processing draft EU directives and other legislation, there will be plenty happening in the corridors of Brussels.
Top of the list is the enlargement of the European Union. Full negotiations will open, probably in February, with another six candidate countries with the most prepared (and least troublesome) in line for full membership by 2005 at the latest.
Turkey has been offered "candidate" status, but few expect formal accession negotiations to open in the short term. Only when the Poles are ready - and they are not at this point in time - will the first wave of countries be positioned for membership. These may include Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia and, perhaps, the Czech Republic.
Enlargement has many dimensions. For business, the prospect of easier access to over 100 million new customers is a plus. Losing Foreign Direct Investment is a distinct negative. The skilled labour force in the candidate countries could also be tapped to mitigate Ireland's labour shortage.
However, there will be a considerable price tag attached to enlargement. There is a slim prospect of Ireland getting anything more than relative pocket money from the structural funds. In the post-2005 era, the new priority will be the economic development of the poor regions of Europe. In addition, our share of the EU's expenditure budget will rise over time.
Masochism is a trait familiar to Europe's diplomats who are responsible for constitutional change. With the ink hardly dry on the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty, another set of inter-governmental negotiations has been set in motion with the aim of concluding by December 2000 what may be called the Treaty of Nice. The agenda is technocratic and uninspiring, however important, in political terms.
The size and composition of the Commission, the weighting of votes in the Council and the extension of majority voting are the elements of the reform package which are considered a prerequisite before any enlargement can take place.
To spice the mix, not least with a view to having something meaningful on offer to Europe's citizens, a Charter of Fundamental Rights will be drafted over the next 12 months. The ambition is that it will become a binding instrument at EU level. These further changes to the EU's treaties are necessary because member-states' heads of state and government failed to address these sensitive issues (which go to the heart of national sovereignty) the last time round.
Despite promptings from the Commission President, Romano Prodi, the signs are that a more ambitious agenda has been shelved. It remains to be seen if the European Parliament will buy into such a minimalist approach. It will take a communications miracle to have the Amsterdam leftovers ratified. So short odds could be offered on a Treaty of Dublin when we hold the EU Presidency in 2004.
Landmark decisions were taken at the recent meeting in Helsinki to strengthen the EU's common defence and security policy. While eschewing the notion of a so-called European army, member-states have set themselves the target of having up to 15 brigades (60,000 troops) available by 2003 with the capacity and mobility to respond to substantial peacekeeping duties, including "bushfires in our own back yard", according to the Commission's President. A new array of committees dealing with military and non-military policies has also been established. A Charter for European Security has been signed.
These decisions now have to be implemented. One of the first tasks will be to ascertain whether it will be necessary to amend the EU treaties to permit member-states take on board these new assignments. The Portuguese Presidency has been asked to consider the matter. If an affirmative answer is given, then a referendum may be necessary in Ireland.
It could have been dubbed the "Seattle Round", but it was not. World trade ministers may have left the recent WTO ministerial conference bruised and bowed, but their work is only beginning. Anticipating that the US presidential election will run its course and that the WTO as an organisation gets its act together, then most of 2000 will be spend putting the Millennium Trade Round back on track.
The immediate losers are the stakeholders who have most to gain: the world's less developed countries. On offer was duty-free access for their products into the developed world and financial and technical assistance to help them implement the multilateral rules that underpin the global trading system. This development dimension is a sine qua non for the next round. European economic prospects have never been rosier. The EU economy will move into higher gear with a 3 per cent economic growth rate in 2000 and 2001. As a consequence, nearly 5.5 million new jobs may be created, knocking three million off Europe's dole queues. While modest relative to Ireland's forecasts, the positive trends in production expectations, low Eurozone inflation, rising consumer confidence and revival in activity in many bourses augur well.
Ireland's Stability Programme (2000-2002) which was published at the time of the Budget and about which practically nothing has been said, will probably be endorsed by Ecofin ministers very early next year, notwithstanding the Central Bank's comments on the Budget.
The programme provides the macroeconomic framework for the Partnership talks. One interesting statistic which is worth noting is that Ireland's GNP per capita benchmarked against the EU average for 2000 is 93.8 per cent (and 120 per cent in GDP terms).
Next year will probably see a positive decision about Greece's participation in the single currency. Denmark and Sweden are also expected to reconsider their situation in 2001. Both Hungary and Cyprus expect to meet the Maastricht criteria in due course.
What is less certain is when, and if, sterling will join. In this context, and of particular interest to Ireland, is the decision taken at the Helsinki summit that the EU should develop and clarify the role, objectives and measures of a comprehensive competitiveness policy within the area of co-ordination of economic policies.
An over-arching theme for 2000 will be e-commerce. It would be a very interesting exercise to benchmark the Government's policies against the recently published Commission initiative called eEurope - An Information Society For All, which proposes ambitious targets to bring the benefits of the information society within reach of all Europeans.
The key aim is to bring every citizen, home and school, every business and administration online and into the digital age. Practical initiatives include setting up EU-wide infrastructure to facilitate the widespread use of smart cards, the provision of healthcare online, and intensive education and training. Coming a close second place in the Euro-league of activity is food safety. Ireland produces £12 billion of food each year and exports £5 billion. Thus Mr David Byrne's proposals, due to be unveiled a few weeks hence in the form of a White Paper on Food Safety, will get the microscope treatment.
All the legislative measures "from farm to fork" to be announced are expected to be adopted by the end of 2002. A new European Food Authority will replace the current range of scientific advisory committees and make decisions on risk management politically accountable. This is a big agenda with bottom-line implications.
While not on everyone's radar screen, sustainable development is a top priority at EU level. Next year work will begin on a long-term strategy which aims to dovetail policies for economic, social and ecological sustainable development. In addition, a new Environmental Action Programme will be drawn up and proposals tabled to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Again, Ireland has critical interests at stake.
What is striking about all these topics is that they have a myopic focus. The EU, like many businesses, does not have the resources or the inclination to look beyond the next crisis or order book as the case may be. Getting a debate going at national and EU level on what is necessary to promote economic growth, political stability and social justice within and around an enlarged Community by 2020 is both overdue and crucial.
This is a task best suited for the Prodi Commission and one that, if dodged, especially with regard to the challenges of security and policing, could see turbulence in the decade ahead.
Peter Brennan is IBEC's director for EU affairs and strategic planning
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