Dolphins and frog spawn signal sizzling summer

ABOUT a year ago Brian McCabe was sitting in his front room watching Live at Three when he noticed something more interesting over his shoulder. The harbour outside his window had turned into dolphin soup. He believes there were thousands of them. Conservative estimates put the number at around 200.

The following day Brian was having a pint in Tigh TP, the pub nearest the pier in the village of Ballydavid on the Dingle peninsula. It was empty, except for the owner, T.R O'Conchuir. The two friends watched the bottle nosed dolphins flipping themselves off the rocks with their tails.

In Ballydavid they don't gush over dolphins like their urban counterparts. To fishermen they're as common as doubledecker buses. But this was different.

"I was drinking a pint and there were dolphins all over the bloody place. I said to T.P., the last time that happened we had a great summer."

Those words were the start of the weather partnership that accurately predicted the hottest summer in years. Brian the bird watcher and T.P. the spokesman and frog spawn observer.

A retired accountant, Brian McCabe keeps a pair of binoculars in the front room, and bird hooks on the shelves. "I have a natural interest in nature . .. if you'll pardon the pun."

Tigh TP is an ordinary pub with an extraordinary set of views through its sea battered windows. Paul Henry could have painted his mountainy seascapes without leaving his bar stool.

Local people seem to get more amusement out of the dolphin day trippers than they get from the animals themselves. And while there was an influx of visitors to see the dolphins last year, they were not the type to make Ballydavid rich. Dolphin people, it seems, tend to bring their own soup and sandwiches.

How much did the village of around 20 people make from its bottle nosed visitors? "If there was money to be made out of the dolphins we'd be out there watering them," is the answer.

But Brian and T.P. were right about the dolphins and the weather. Last year saw record temperatures and long days of sunshine.

AFTER the dolphins, the pair started to note other animals which were arriving or leaving at unusual times. "We watch literally everything," T.P. says. "We're sitting in the pub in the morning thrashing everything out: births, deaths and marriages and then we'd go on to the things we see.

This year, Brian McCabe says, the sand martins, which nest in the cliff face, have arrived from their winter sunshine break two weeks earlier than usual.

Similarly the winter loving birds like thrushes seem to have left early.

Then on March 27th, the same date they appeared last year, a pod of around 25 dolphins came to the head of Ballydavid pier. They are still outside the bay, according to one fisherman. "I think I saw around 16, but I could have been counting the same ones twice."

The dolphins have been notoriously media shy. On Wednesday there were lots of choppy waves, but no flippers to be seen. Last year a camera crew arrived after the publicity, complete with underwater camera. When they played hack their footage on the television in Tigh TP, they found the only unusual wildlife they had captured was a hair on the lens.

Photographers have left their phone numbers behind the bar in the hope of a repeat performance.

The area, about six miles from Dingle, has its own mistral, locally called Garbh na mhi gCuach, which roughly translates as the harsh wind of the cuckoo. The blustery weather arrives precisely on April 15th, according to local lore, and leaves again on May 15th. Then summer comes. This year the wind has already arrived, possibly the sign of an early summer.

T.P. has also noticed that the frogs have been spawning in the same way they did last year: in straight lines up the middle of the ponds, as if expecting a drought to dry up the edges. However, that could be caused by the dry winter and spring.

Since his last predictions, on The Gay Byrne Show, T.P. says people have phoned him from around the country with their own signs and predictions. One man in Tipperary said he noticed the crows nesting higher in the trees, a sign of good weather. Another caller said birds were nesting low in the trees around the lakes, a sign that they expected a low water level.

A lot of the lore comes from the older people of Ballydavid. Before television came in, the weather would he the topic. They had their signs and they were very exact," T.P. says.

He is prepared to risk his reputation as the Kerry weatherman on another good summer this year. The dolphins clinched it for him. "When they appeared we knew it . . . We're not as sure this year as we were last year, but it looks like it could he a scorcher.

"If we're wrong," he says, "I'll blame McCabe."

"ANYBODY who forecasts that far ahead is just chancing his arm." That's the view of an official in the Met Eireann. A computer monitor rather than a pub window provides most of the employees in Met Eireann's bases with their forecast material. From a building in Glasnevin, Dublin and 13 weather stations around the State, forecasts up to six days ahead are compiled.

"The shorter the period the more reliable it is," the official said. And Met Eireann is usually comfortable with a three day forecast. Will technology ever provide an answer to the annual questions about a good summer? "Not in my lifetime," is the official's view.

Weather is also good business for bookmakers. Chief executive of Paddy Power, Mr Stewart Kenny, says he is offering odds of around three to one on bettering last year's top temperature.

The 30.8C temperature was recorded in Kilkenny on August 2nd. Paddy Power will pay out if it hits 31 C this year.

The usual weather bet is on whether there will be two inches of rain in the first two weeks in August. "People use it as a kind of insurance on their holiday. If the weather's bad at least they're taking money from the bookies." The most he has taken on a bet such as that is around £100, Mr Kenny says.

Does he agree with the dolphins? "I'm an optimist. Hot summers don't suit the bookies, so I don't think it will be as good as last year."