Concern rather than alarm felt at reports of IRA resignations

Reports of resignations by senior members of the IRA have caused concern in political circles here but the consensus view is that there is no reason to get alarmed at this stage.

The almost universal assessment by participants in the peace process is that the IRA ceasefire remains solid. The present climate is a long way from the despair and gloom which preceded Canary Wharf.

But neither is there any excuse for complacency. The early warning signs that led to the breakdown of the last ceasefire were ignored by politicians obsessed with decommissioning. The rebel was never going to hand in his pike.

The IRA ceasefire is the cornerstone of the peace process. If it breaks down, then the loyalists will inevitably go back to full-scale war also. Sooner or later, Sinn Fein and the loyalist parties would have to be excluded from the talks. We would be back to the Brooke-Mayhew negotiations which ultimately collapsed. Meanwhile, a new generation of republican activists would come on the scene; the Adams-McGuinness leadership would be replaced and we would have to contend with another 25 years of conflict and hopelessness.

Despite the fact that it is loathed and despised by sections of the community and covertly or openly admired by others, the IRA's internal dynamics are not unlike those of other organisations. The raison d'etre of the movement is war, so when there is a prolonged ceasefire, it is inevitable that some members will either quit in disgust or take the opportunity for "early retirement".

Sources close to the Anglo-Irish Conference which met in Belfast on Wednesday said there was no discussion of any alleged crisis in the Provisional IRA at the conference's plenary session. It may be the case, however, that the issue arose in the private session between ministers or in the restricted discussion on security.

Nobody here is alarmed, but everybody is concerned. The Stormont talks are at a delicate stage. Recent weeks have been taken up with the submission of papers on different aspects of the agenda. There was also an unwritten understanding among at least some of the participants that Mr David Trimble would have to be allowed to get through his party conference and the latest meeting of his executive before any kind of serious pressure was brought to bear on the Ulster Unionists to reach a compromise with the other parties.

Mr Trimble had an excellent conference and appears to have a strong measure of control over his party. Indeed, the leadership seems to be trailing behind the members on the issue of appearing on television with Sinn Fein representatives.

However, there is still deep scepticism among the unionists about the talks. Mr Gerry Adams has called on the British government to put pressure on the UUP to "engage" in the peace process. Ironically, his hand will be strengthened by reports of dissent in republican ranks.

The peace process has been dominated in recent weeks by anxiety to ensure that the UUP came to the table with Sinn Fein. Unionists naturally felt they had made a huge gesture when they remained in the process after the decommissioning issue was set aside.

The Unionists and Sinn Fein do not agree on much but they both suspect that the present talks could run into the sand. The Unionists say they want to get to the key issues fast; Mr Adams claims the UUP is not serious about talking. Eventually, Mr Tony Blair will have to step in. The talks must be shifted to a higher gear if the process is to retain credibility and Mr Blair alone has the clout to get the participants to start cutting a deal.

The two governments still appear to be singing from the same hymn-sheet, although there could be problems if the British side fails to grasp the Bloody Sunday nettle and get to the truth of what happened in Derry that day. The Irish dossier on the shootings was submitted to the British last June.

A key point in reports of republican resignations is that the dissidents and retirees are not crossing over to the Continuity IRA. Nevertheless the reports of internal dissent come at an opportune time for Republican Sinn Fein, which holds its ardfheis in Dublin this weekend.

There does not appear to be any great anxiety in Provisional Sinn Fein over internal dissent, although there is considerable sensitivity to claims that the party is prepared to accept partition. If anything, senior Sinn Fein members seem more concerned about the influence of neo-unionists on public opinion south of the Border than about their own dissidents.

Republican sources say there is no point in targeting or even gathering intelligence during a ceasefire because your information will be out of date if the ceasefire subsequently comes to an end. Nor is the movement recruiting new members at present, apparently. What kind of revolutionary joins during a ceasefire? Memories of the "Trucileers" who joined in the early 1920s are still fresh.

The real test for the IRA and everyone else will come when a deal is on the table. If a settlement package is put together it will, by definition, contain elements that parties on all sides will find hard to swallow. Republicans will then have to make a judgment call: does this bring the dream of united Ireland closer to realisation or should they go back to war?

Equally, unionists will have to decide if the British link is safer with a settlement or if they should batten down the hatches for the stormy passage to come. In the words of the 18th-century radical, Tom Paine - later taken up by Henry Joy McCracken: "These are the times that try men's souls."