Being nice to smaller parties is good for Fine Gael

AFTER eight unhappy years in opposition, Fine Gael is delighting in the unexpected luxuries of government. In spite of difficulties, John Bruton is counting his blessings. And the party has an air of quiet comfort not reflected by the opinion polls.

As always there are doomsayers about. Dissatisfied backbenchers grumble that the party is only flying on one wing; that able TDs who opposed Mr Bruton's leadership in 1994 still languish in the political arctic and that his inner circle, irrespective of abilities, enjoys the spoils of office.

The grumbling is low key. It's as if party members don't want to tempt fate. They are fully aware of the sheer good luck, the "hop of the ball", that brought Fine Gael into government 15 months ago.

Back then, the political outlook was morale crippling for the opposition parties. Fianna Fail and the Labour Party enjoyed a huge Dail majority which had the potential to survive well into the new millennium. Fine Gael, the Progressive Democrats and Democratic Left were dead in the water, with little prospect of seeing the inside of Cabinet for at least seven years. And then Albert Reynolds scuttled the government ship.

The most obvious change involved the entry of Fine Gael and Democratic Left into government with Labour. And the Progressive Democrats emerged as possible partners for Fianna Fail. The Dail arithmetic was transformed. Rejuvenation all around.

There is now a quiet determination in Leinster House to prevent the re emergence of a Fianna Fail/Labour alliance after the next election. Those who criticise Mr Bruton for not being assertive enough of Fine Gael's identity in government ignore this factor. The party's best chance of power lies in a positive relationship with the smaller parties. An alliance with Fianna Fail is still a bridge too far.

THERE is little prospect of a voting pact between the Government parties when the general election comes around in 15 or 16 months. At this stage, and in spite of a good working relationship, the view within all three parties is that they will campaign on independent platforms. There is, however, the possibility of an unofficial voting arrangement, which could be highly beneficial to Fine Gael.

On the Opposition benches, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats are cosying up to one another. But there is a bright eyed realisation within Fianna Fail that their combined strength might not be sufficient to form a government after the election. And coy glances are being directed towards Labour.

Last time out, Fine Gael secured Labour Party transfers in a ratio of two to one, compared to Fianna Fail. And a similar pattern existed in relation to the Progressive Democrats. It was a real bonus. Winning 24.5 per cent of the popular vote, Fine Gael took 27 per cent of the Dail seats. If the party could pump up its vote towards 30 per cent in the next election, it would be on the way to a dramatic recovery.

The opinion polls show a very gradual improvement in the party's fortunes. From a low of 17 per cent in February 1994, support for the party crept up to 24 per cent, last November. Mr Bruton had re established his authority as party leader and there was a high satisfaction rating with the Government as a whole.

This is the party's first ard fheis since it came to power. And it will take the form of a celebration, rather than a soul searching exercise. The number of delegates will be up by as much as 50 per cent. And there is widespread confidence that Fine Gael will gain at least a handful of seats in the coming election.

Proof of the resilience of the party can be found in the success of its fund raising efforts. Over the past year its debt of £1 million has been almost eliminated and it hopes to enter 1996 with cash in its election chest. In contrast, Fianna Fail is finding the going hard. And it dismisses Fine Gael's success with the observation that money always flows to the party in power.

Financial health is hugely important to any political party. And when that health is combined with a restructured organisation, with the involvement of all members in the selection of Dail candidates, the mix could be potent.

In the past year, John Bruton played a considerable role in the passage of the divorce referendum, while Michael Noonan played a blinder on the abortion Act. Now, as the last of the "liberal agenda" is being put to bed, the party has spread its net for more conservative voters and is guarding against the depredations of parties led by Nora Bennis and Gerard Casey.

Finola Bruton took the high ground in that regard during President Clinton's visit and she and her husband later visited the Pope in Rome to confirm their commitment to "family values". Much the same agenda will be followed tonight when the ardfheis debates "Women in Irish Society" and continues tomorrow with "The Family".

But there are political rocks in the road. Nora Owen will have a tough time on what is traditionally a comfortable Fine Gael subject. The party of law and order has been out flanked by Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, with John O'Donoghue and Liz O Donnell demand a draconian response to a crime situation. The party leader is struggling to keep up with opposition demands for modification of the bail laws; for an end of the right to silence; for an expanded prison building programme for a harsher anti drugs regime and for more Garda resources.

LAW and order will be a key issue in the next general election and the Minister a little more than a year in which to sharpen up her act. The same holds true on the economy, where Richard Bruton is struggling with long term unemployment. Booming exports may provide a feel good factor for industry and for those lucky people with jobs, but there is a black hole at the centre of the economic miracle in terms of gross and unacceptable unemployment levels.

Ivan Yates has presided over an increasingly wealthy and powerful agricultural sector, which has received special concessions in the last two budgets. Fine Gael's real strength is in rural areas and that base is being carefully husbanded by Mr Yates. Problems in the sheep and beef industry have caused minor hiccups, but real concerns arise in relation to a threatened EU beef fine of up to £100 million and the use of illegal growth promoters within the food sector. The funding of the EU fine from the Department of Agriculture vote could pose serious problems for Fine Gael and impose stress on the coalition arrangement.

But all other difficulties are insignificant when compared with the worsening Northern Ireland situation. The success or failure of the peace process will impact directly on John Bruton's leadership and on his future standing. Already he has been accused of being too understanding of the unionist position and of not acting as a full blooded leader of nationalist Ireland.

If, as seems increasingly likely, the IRA is not prepared to abandon the armed struggle in favour of a purely democratic and political settlement, Mr Bruton will be faced with harsh, unpalatable and unpopular decisions. The situation is extremely fraught. The well being of the entire country is at stake. But Mr Bruton has strong cross party support in the Dail for the democratic road. And the withdrawal of a Sinn Fein invitation to Fine Gael's ardfheis this weekend may point the way ahead.