Will O'Brien pull the plug on his 98FM licence?

The Broadcasting Commission of Ireland's decision not to sanction the sale of FM104 to Denis O'Brien presents him with something…

The Broadcasting Commission of Ireland's decision not to sanction the sale of FM104 to Denis O'Brien presents him with something of a dilemma.

O'Brien already has two local radio licences in Dublin - 98FM and youth station Spin - so the BCI's ruling was hardly a surprise. We just can't help wondering if FM104 is the station that O'Brien wants to lose.

Over the past couple of years, FM104 has firmly established itself as the biggest local radio station in Dublin. 98FM, by contrast, has struggled with its ratings.

FM104 is highly profitable. Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the year to the end of March 2008 are projected at €4.6 million off revenues of €10.6 million.

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Financiers reckon it could be worth about €45 million. The station is also due to move into new, state-of-the-art studios on Digges Lane in the new year, along with sister station Today FM. What now of that plan?

As his first born radio child here, 98FM has a special place in O'Brien's affections. Sentiment only goes so far, however, as shown by Jurys Doyle's sales of the Montrose, Burlington, Berkeley Court and Jurys hotels.

What odds on O'Brien offering up another sacrifice to the BCI and the Competition Authority?