Ryanair looks well positioned to cash in as travel recovers

Ryanair paid off its £600 million sterling (€720 million) British government Covid corporate financing facility five months early in October, helping to cut its net debt to €2.14 billion at the end of December from €2.28 billion at the end of March.

Chief executive Michael O’Leary said on Monday that the airline intended to cut this to zero “as quickly as possible” over the next two years. Ryanair actually paid off €1.7 billion in debt through last year. It also borrowed €1.2 billion through a bond issue in May at 0.875 per cent interest.

Europe’s largest airline, had €3 billion in cash at the end of December. Alongside that, fuel is almost fully hedged for the rest of this financial year, which ends on March 31st.

Fuel demand for the six months to the end of September, which includes peak holiday time, is 80 per cent hedged, while the airline has 70 per cent cover for the following six months.

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Losses for the nine months to the end of September were €143 million. Ryanair is sticking with guidance that it could lose €250 million to €450 million in the current financial year.

Ryanair earned €3.6 billion revenues in the nine months ended December 31st. As travel curbs were widespread up to June, the summer and autumn accounted for much of that, sales in the third quarter were €1.47 billion.

One place that broke with this pattern was the Republic, Ryanair's home country. Irish revenues amounted to €77.2 million in the quarter to December 31st and €159.4 million in the nine months to that date. This probably reflects the fact that the Government only began lifting its travel bans in mid July, six weeks after the rest of Europe.

Ryanair looks well positioned to cash in as travel recovers. But it is anybody’s guess as to when precisely that will be. The reaction of governments to Covid’s Omicron strain put the brakes on what was looking like a healthy rebound by November.

In his third quarter statement, O’Leary cautions shareholders to “expect further Covid disruptions” before Europe and the rest of the world can declare the crisis over.