The questions that remain after 2007

Business Opinion John McManus As the year draws to a close, we here atBusiness Opinion have endeavoured to answer some of the knotty questions hanging over from 2007.

Will Jim Flavin step down from the DCC board in 2008?

One would be tempted to say not while there is still breath left in his body and the shareholders focus on the company's performance. But even the DCC board might find it hard to tough out a prosecution being brought against Flavin or the company by the Director of Corporate Enforcement. The annual general meeting should be a lively enough affair, and it will be interesting to hear what the various proxy advisory firms have to say in advance, and whether any Irish institutional investors will pay them any heed.

Will Denis O'Brien take over Independent News & Media?

Not next year, barring anything happening that will bring the succession race into focus. More snipping from the trenches is to be expected.

The global credit crisis appears to have put paid to any take-private plans that Sir Antony O'Reilly might have been harbouring and in the process closed off the most obvious mechanism that would have put the company in play.

Will there be a break through in the stalemate at ICG?

One thing is for certain and that is that Dublin Port is not moving anywhere soon. And that is the only thing that makes sense of the prices paid for ICG shares. Trust does not exist between any of the parties and thus it is hard to see how a deal will be brokered. Philip Lynch's Moonduster must be considered the mostly likely to blink first as, unlike Eamonn Rothwell or Liam Carroll, Philip Lynch is answerable to shareholders. The backers of One51 might have a lot of faith in Lynch, but will want a better reason than sheer bloody mindedness for staying involved.

Will C&C be sold?

It is very hard to see any other outcome, with Maurice Pratt doing everything to make the company attractive to a buyer short of wrapping it in gift paper and tying on a ribbon. What he can't do is fix the weakness in its business which has now been highlighted.

Will NTR still exist in 12 months' time?

With two big pay days coming its way as a result of the break-up of Airtricity, together will the sale of the Westlink, NTR will soon start to resemble nothing so much as a large pile of cash waiting for a liquidity event. There is some talk of it becoming to waste and biofuels what CRH is to cement, which would match the ambitions of Jim Barry.

But, given the hype about biofuel is starting to wear thin, maybe it's time to take the money.

Will we have tax harmonisation?

No, not as long as the British don't want it either. But you can expect to hear lots of talk about it every time the Government needs a straw man to knock down in order to make themselves look on top of things.

Will the Irish Nationwide be sold?

Again, like C&C, its hard to see any other outcome, but not at the €1.5 billion price tag that some are still clinging to. The key here is what happens next month when managing director Michael Fingleton must step down from the board. The extent to which he can still control the play from outside the boardroom could prove decisive in bringing things to a quick resolution.

Will the ESB be split up into a generating and grid company?

It is Government policy and and European Union policy, but the ESB unions are opposed to it. In the normal way, one would have to say not a chance. What spices things up however is the appointment of Lochlann Quinn as chairman. The Ferrari-driving, wine-making, former industrialist and banker generally gets things done, but 12 months is pushing it.

Will Ryanair take over Aer Lingus?

One would have to assume another bid is a certainty for the publicity if nothing else. The prospect of it succeeding seems remote, given that the Government is still not a seller and Europe is against it. It might be prudent for Ryanair to await the outcome of its myriad of related legal actions, but prudence is not in the Ryanair manual.

Will ISTC survive?

Tiarnan O'Mahoney's bank for banks is unlikely to see another Christmas, and certainly not under its own name. The parallels between ISTC and GPA are many and that probably goes for the rescue.

Will Derek Quinlan buy the Empire State building?

Not if Bernard McNamara hears that it is for sale.