It’s not party time for retailers yet

The hunt is on for the lesser-spotted Irish shopper. The species, until recently feared to be nearing extinction, was last seen roaming in large numbers across the country in 2007. Could they finally be on the way back? The experts appear split on the long-term prospects for Irish shoppers.

Economic boffins pointed to yesterday’s CSO retail sales data as proof that there are “signs of life”.

Core retail sales volumes, excluding motors, rose by 2.6 per cent in the first quarter while overall volumes rose by almost 9 per cent in March.

Volumes rose in sales of most categories, including furniture, electrical goods and clothing. Saddle up, we’re back in business. Right?

Not so fast, say the people who actually know what’s going on: the retailers themselves.

Retail Ireland, the Ibec group that represents 3,000 big and small shops up and down the country, says the latest CSO figures are no reason to be cheerful.

It is sales value that counts, says Retail Ireland, not volume.

And there has been no spike in sales values: excluding pubs and car sales, they are almost flat. Six years on from the onset of the crisis, this is worrying.

With unemployment still at almost 12 per cent, Retail Ireland is right to point out that the current anaemic growth rates in Irish retailing are still far too low.

The spike in volumes is mainly caused by vicious discounting, especially in the grocery sector, while the Indian summer in the property market has resulted in sales of more couches and decking.

But the property market’s 10 per cent-plus recovery rate in Dublin is unsustainable, and the discounters will hit bone eventually.

Only when the full impact of the property tax and water charges hits consumers next year will we know what the real long-term prospects for Irish retailing is.