Republic's export trade stays strong

Export trade in the Republic remained relatively strong over August and September, suggesting that the economy is well positioned to benefit from any upturn in the US.

Figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) yesterday show that while the Republic's trade surplus with the rest of the world saw a monthly decline of 9.9 per cent in August, it spiked up by 21 per cent in September, reaching €3.5 billion.

This is the highest level recorded since the start of the year and has come in slightly ahead of analysts' expectations.

Mr Dermot O'Brien, chief economist with NCB, said the trade performance was "not spectacular", but noted that it should be viewed in the context of global economic uncertainty.

"We wouldn't have expected to see a huge improvement right now," he said.

Mr O'Brien believes the US economy is currently passing through a "soft spot" rather than a double-dip recession. The latest trade numbers bode well for the Republic if and when an upturn occurs, he argued.

Seasonally adjusted data show that the Republic exported goods worth €7.3 billion in August and €7.6 billion in September. This compares to an uncharacteristically strong export figure of €7.8 billion for July.

Imports amounted to €4.4 billion in August, down from €4.6 billion in July. In September, imports fell by a further €311 million to slightly more than €4 billion.

"It does suggest that, in the third quarter, the trade side is still having a positive impact on GDP growth," said Mr O'Brien.

Unadjusted figures show that the value of exports grew by 3 per cent to €63.3 billion in the first eight months of the year, when compared to 2001.

The value of imports fell by 1 per cent to €38 billion over the same period.