Pivotal week for global forex markets

A US interest rate decision, US unemployment figures and a looming meeting of G7 policymakers will combine to make next week one of the most important for months, market traders say. Other key data for those trying to assess the health of the global economy will include polls of the manufacturing and service sectors on either side of the Atlantic.

"Next week will probably be the biggest week in the foreign exchange markets in the last 12 months," said Mr Adam Myers, foreign exchange strategist at Société Générale.

Rates in the US are expected to rise by another quarter point to 2.75 per cent when the Fed's Open Markets Committee meets on Wednesday while the consensus view is that the European Central Bank's governing council, which meets the following day, will leave rates alone for some time yet. Currencies, specifically the dollar, are likely to dominate the G7 meeting towards the end of the week with European government looking for help from Asia in tackling the weaker dollar.

Closer to home, Ryanair produces third-quarter figures today that are likely to give a better view of the impact of higher fuel prices on the airline in the Christmas period. - (Reuters)

Monday

Results: Allegheny Technologies (Q4), ExxonMobil (Q4), Filtronic (H1), Fuji Photo Film (Q3), Hilton Hotels (Q4), Honeycombe Leisure (H1), Kellogg (Q4), Mattel (Q4), Pioneer (Q3), Ryanair (Q3), St Paul Travellers (Q4), Visteon (Q4), Walt Disney (Q1), Wyeth (Q4).

A.G.M.: Edinburgh Worldwide, F&C Capital.

Meetings: Seminar on Pharmacists Role in New Healthcare Strategies (Westin Hotel, Dublin)

Indicators: Euro-zone economic sentiment (Jan), consumer sentiment (Jan), industry sector sentiment (Jan), services sector sentiment (Jan) and business climate (Jan); Irish Central Bank monthly statistics (Dec); US personal income/spending (Dec) and new homes (Dec); British CBI sales (Jan); French consumer confidence (Jan); Italian producer prices (Dec).

Others: Minister for Finance, Mr Cowen, launches Business Studies Interactive programme for Junior Certificate business students; Friends Provident trading update.

Tuesday

Results: Amvescap, BOC (Q1), Boston Scientific (Q4), Chubb (Q4), Epic (H1), Google (Q4), Heidelberger (Q3), Ingersoll Rand (Q4), Jyske Bank (Q4), Kensington Group, Serono, Surfcontrol (Q2), Tyco International (Q1), UPM-Kymmene (Q4), Virgin Mobile (Q3), XP Power.

A.G.M.: Care Uk, EII.

Indicators: Euro-zone purchasing managers' index (PMI) manufacturing (Jan) and unemployment (Jan); Irish NCB PMI manufacturing (Jan); US Institute of Supply Management manufacturing index (Jan), construction spending (Dec), and vehicle sales (Jan); British PMI manufacturing (Jan); German PMI manufacturing (Jan); French PMI manufacturing (Jan).

Others: International Fund for Ireland publishes annual report for 2004; Construction Industry Federation outlines "Outlook for the Construction Industry 2005"; deadline for interested parties to submit views to ComReg on treatment of confidential information.

Wednesday

Results: Amazon.com (Q4), Anheuser-Busch (Q4), Atlas Copco (Q4), Autonomy (Q4), Barr Pharmaceuticals (Q2), Boeing (Q4), BSkyB (H1), CB Richard Ellis (Q4), Ceva (Q4), Forrester Research (Q4), Fox Entertainment (Q2), Johnson Matthey, Jones Lang LaSalle (Q4), Metso, News Corp (Q2), Northrop Grumann (Q4), Orca Interactive, Roche.

A.G.M.: Getronics (e.g.m.), Travis Perkins (e.g.m.).

Meetings: Export Opportunities seminar hosted by Enterprise Ireland, Amarach and OEF (Jury's Hotel, Dublin).

Indicators: Euro-zone producer prices (Dec); US layoffs (Jan); German unemployment (Jan) and retail sales (Dec).

Others: European Commission due to present final draft proposals to overhaul the stalled Lisbon Agenda; O2 Ability Awards; Digital Media Awards 2005 (Burlington Hotel, Dublin).

Thursday

Results: AGF, Alcatel, Amer, BMC Software (Q3), BNP Paribas, Caffe Nero (H1), Carlisle Companies (Q4), Deutsche Bank, Epcos (Q1), Fortum, Gillette (Q4), International Paper (Q4), PepsiCo (Q4), Shell, Smith & Nephew, Starwood Hotels & Resorts (Q4), Stora Enso, Stork, Watson Wyatt (Q2).

Meetings: Dublin Chamber of Commerce annual general meeting and dinner with an Taoiseach, Mr Ahern (Four Seasons Hotel, Dublin); European Central Bank Governing Council meets, followed by interest rate announcement.

Indicators: Euro-zone purchasing managers' index (PMI) services (Jan); Irish overseas travel (Dec) and NCB PMI services (Jan); US Institute of Supply Management services index (Jan), productivity (Q4), labour costs (Q4), factory orders (Jan) and durable goods (Jan); British PMI services (Jan).

Others: Finance Bill 2005 due to be published; Pernod Ricard announces sales figures for 2004.

Friday

Results: Akzo Nobel, British Airways (Q3), Cardinal Health (Q2), Partridge Fine Arts, Scania (Q4), Time Warner (Q4).

A.G.M.: Cambridge Antibody Technology, SR Pharma (e.g.m.).

Meetings: Finance ministers from G7 countries meet for their first regular meeting under Britain's presidency, Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Russia invited to attend (London); Cork Chamber of Commerce annual dinner (City Hall, Cork).

Indicators: Euro-zone consumer prices (Jan) and retail sales (Dec); Irish unemployment (Jan); US unemployment (Jan), average earnings (Jan), average working week (Jan) and Michigan Sentiment Survey (Jan final).

Others: EU Commissioner for Internal Markets and Services, Mr Charlie McCreevy accept Institute of Management consultants Annual Medal (Alexander Hotel, Dublin).