Joe Burnell's downgrading of Independent Newspapers' prospects this year and next caused the expected fall in the Indo share and the predictable response of a share buyback from the newspaper group. Most of the selling was the result of the Davy analyst's comments about the impact of the weakness in the South African and New Zealand economies on earnings.
The NZ dollar is down 10 per cent and the South African rand 16 per cent against the pound and advertising growth in both economies is slower than anticipated. But less attention was devoted to Burnell's comments about the British economy and the slowdown in advertising growth that traditionally goes hand-in-hand with an economy in a downturn.
Press advertising in Britain is expected to fall 3 per cent. But recruitment advertising, on which the heavily loss-making London Independent is dependent, is expected to decline by as much as 10 per cent. It's unlikely that Tony O'Reilly and Liam Healy had those declines in advertising in mind when the Indo shelled out £34 million in cash and assumed debt to buy the Mirror out of the Indie.
The Indie might be a wonderful calling-card for Tony O'Reilly, but it's looking more and more like a horrendously expensive way to get recognition as a national newspaper publisher in Britain.
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