International stock markets expected to influence sentiment

International stock markets - especially the Far East, New York and London - may have the most impact on the Irish market over the coming week. But analysts in Dublin are expecting another week of bumper corporate results this week, with Kerry, Waterford Wedgwood, CRH and Jefferson Smurfit all expected to please the market with their first half figures.

Kerry is the first to report and analysts are expecting half-year profits of £2324 million, up about 16 per cent on the first half of last year. Kerry is expected to benefit significantly from the strength of the dollar and substantially lower prices for its raw materials.

Kerry took a severe hit on raw materials in the first half of 1996, when the floods in the American mid-west drove up prices for a range of raw materials used in Kerry's ingredients business in the United States. The group is also expected to report strong volume growth, particularly in its British consumer goods business.

As one of the biggest sausage producers in the UK, Kerry is expected to benefit from the 20 per cent growth in the British pork sausage market in the past year. The fall of the pound against sterling will also boost Kerry's export of poultry and pigmeat products to the UK.

CRH reports its half-year results tomorrow and company broker Davy has pencilled in pretax profits of £62 million. But, with the £200 million-plus acquisition of Tilcon, the seasonality of CRH's earnings has now become even more pronounced, and Davy expects that half-year profits to account for no more than 27 per cent of the broker's full-year forecast of £230 million.

Results last week from secondline construction stocks, such as Readymix, Grafton and Kingspan, emphasised the strength of the domestic construction industry and CRH as the biggest cement producer in the country is expected to be a major beneficiary of the current construction boom.

On Wednesday, Smurfit is expected to report a sharp fall in profits from £126 million in first half 1996 to anything between £38 million and £60 million in first half 1997. But the market will be paying precious little attention to the first half figures, as most attention will be on the company's comments on current trading.

Smurfit shares have moved ahead strongly in the past few weeks, as investors took the view that the group will benefit from a cyclical upswing in the packaging industry, an upswing that will be reflected in prices for its main products.

As one of the world's largest containerboard and box producers, Smurfit is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of the recent, and expected further, rises in containerboard/box prices, while the strength of the dollar is one major factor acting in Smurfit's favour.

Waterford Wedgwood also reports on Wednesday, but broker Riada believes that the share price is currently up with events, and that the share is likely to no more than consolidate after the release of the results. Crystal profits are likely to compensate for a tougher first half at Wedgwood, says Riada.