Insurers are keeping a weather eye open

The first week of November last year brought the most serious flooding to Ireland since Hurricane Charlie. There was more than a month's rainfall in one day in some areas. Several counties had to activate emergency plans, with the south and east bearing the brunt of the damage.

As the clean-up programme got under way and services began to return to normal, many householders were dealing with their first experience of the serious after-effects of a flood.

Residents of several new estates in Meath, Kildare and Dublin found out the hard way that their houses were situated on land that was prone to flooding.

On the Grange Manor estate in Lucan, where new houses had recently sold for up to £209,000, (€265,375) Garda∅ had to borrow a boat to rescue families with young children in deep water.

In all, insurers paid out £21 million in claims to 5,256 households as a direct result of the November floods. A similar figure was paid out to commercial property policyholders.

There were fears that insurers would exclude flood peril from policies in high-risk areas unless they were reassured by local authorities that sufficient remedial action had been taken to prevent flooding recurring.

The chief executive of the Irish Insurance Federation (IIF), Mr Michael Kemp, said at the time that the most pressing lesson to be learned from the flooding experience was the need for planners and public representatives to avoid designating flood-prone land for construction.

He warned that the insurance industry could not afford to continue dealing with the financial consequences of inevitable events.

So has anything changed for insurers, planners and householders in the past 12 months? As winter sets in, are we any better prepared for the next serious weather incident, whenever it may be?

Based on the experience of the past five years, the next time the State is lashed by severe storms or caught in a deluge is likely to come sooner than we expect.

Met ╔ireann produces tables of the likely return period of a severe weather event, and the last two occasions have turned up sooner than standard calculations would suggest.

This can be attributed to global climatic changes, leading to warmer but wetter weather.

The insurance industry has shouldered the cost of three extended episodes of bad weather in four years. There was a respite of 11 years between Hurricane Charlie in August 1986 and the Christmas storms of 1997/98, which produced some 37,000 claims, with a total cost of £64 million.

The following year during the same festive period there were more severe storms, this time causing £44 million of damage. The November 2000 floods came along less than two years later and the final bill for that incident was £40 million.

These costs have caused reinsurance rates to go up, one of many factors that have driven up the cost of property insurance. The IIF expects that domestic property insurance premiums will increase by 25 per cent in the coming year, perhaps more. The forecast is even bleaker for commercial property policies.

The number of claims recorded during last November's floods was not as great as the numbers received following the December 1997 and December 1998 storms. However, the average cost of claims settlement was substantially higher for the flood claims.

As the largest home insurer in the Republic, Royal & Sun Alliance has its own explanation for why the flood claims were more expensive.

The company points to the progressively higher replacement cost of fixtures, fittings and personal possessions, and the spiralling cost of building, material and general labour charges. Water damage is usually more extensive inside the home.

Royal & Sun Alliance confirmed that the increasing incidence and cost of such events was having a direct affect on the availability and cost of insurance.

"In certain areas prone to flooding, we have had to withdraw specific flood-damage cover at renewal of the policy. In some other cases, we insist that preventative measures, such as the provision of flood-barrier fixtures to doors and other openings, are installed before flood-damage cover can be provided," a spokesman said.

One of the most notorious flooding black spots and one that suffered particularly badly last year was Clonmel.

Ms Mary Clancy, secretary of the Old Bridge Community Association in the town, said that no works had started in the area yet.

"We are living with the threat of flooding and are very disillusioned by the whole thing. One of the houses in the area has been flooded five times in the last seven years. The luckier ones were only flooded for the first time last year."

According to Clonmel-based insurance brokers, O'Sullivan's, insurers are treating most of last year's cases as once-off flooding incidents and will renew flood cover. But insurers will not quote for certain areas in the town with a known history of flooding, even if the individual house has never been flooded, the brokerage said.

Following last year's severe flooding, the Government allocated funds for a humanitarian aid package for people and communities who had suffered flood damage.

The final amount paid out to some 450 applicants was £2.75 million. The Red Cross acted as the main agency for distributing the flood relief.

Having insurance was not a barrier to getting money from the scheme, as each case was assessed individually. Compensation was paid to residents of 17 counties, with Tipperary receiving the largest share of the State aid.

As in many parts of north-west Europe, and more recently Britain, insurers in the Republic will, in future, be more selective about providing flood-damage cover. The use of sophisticated mapping technology to isolate bad risks will be the norm in the next few of years.

A worrying aspect of last year's flooding was that many of the new flood areas appeared to be in or close to relatively recent housing developments. Insurers have stressed that planning and development authorities have a crucial role to play in ensuring effective regulation and control of development in flood-risk areas.

The situation should be improved by the Planning and Development Act 2000, which identifies risk of flooding as an issue to be considered by local authorities when drawing up development plans. The Act also frees local authorities from the prospect of having to pay compensation in cases where they refuse planning permission due to the risk of flooding.

At present, there are numerous cases of flooding risk where no preventative measures have been taken. The Office of Public Works has completed seven flood relief schemes in the past five years. A further five are currently at the design stage and four are at construction stage.

Local authorities are also undertaking works in certain areas. South Dublin County Council commissioned engineering consultants to carry out a detailed study of the floods that deluged Lucan Village last November.

The consultants' report issued recommendations and requirements for work to be undertaken. According to the senior engineer for water and drainage services, Mr Seβn Murray, the first phase of the Griffeen River works is nearing completion. He said the works procured so far would be adequate to withstand the levels that occurred last year. The developers of the estates in the area are collaborating on the flood-relief works.

The action that has been taken is reassuring for local residents and the campaigners of the Griffeen Flood Action Group. Mr Conway Smyth, spokesman for the group, said residents were fairly happy that their homes were secure, but said there were concerns that Lucan village was still at risk.

When the worst comes to the worst, householders in unprotected flood-prone areas will have to rely on their own ingenuity, whatever insurance they can get, Government charity and hopefully a bit of luck.