Huge oil find puts focus on Brazil

The discovery of a huge oil field off the coast of Brazil last week has starkly highlighted the diverging fortunes of two of South America's biggest companies.

In Brazil, euphoria greeted the news that state-controlled oil company Petrobras has found up to eight billion barrels of crude in its Tupi field, which has the potential to be just the first such discovery in a new oil frontier.

The company's directors stated that up to 80 billion barrels could lie in an 800km belt off Brazil's southeastern shore, a massive boost for a country with just under 12 billion barrels in proven reserves, or around 15 years of supply at current consumption.

Eight billion barrels in Tupi alone would make it the most significant discovery since the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan in 2000, itself one of the biggest finds in the last 30 years.

"Tupi shows that oil is still out there and that if companies boost their exploration priority then the potential peak in supply could be pushed back a bit," says David Fyfe, an oil supply analyst with the OECD's International Energy Agency.

After decades as an importer, Tupi promises to allow Brazil to start oil exports. The announcement saw Petrobras' shares soar and last week its market capitalisation briefly passed out ExxonMobile to become the world's second-largest company after PetroChina.

A publicly listed company, the Brazilian government holds 55.7 per cent of Petrobras' voting shares.

This boost by Petrobras to global supply stands in marked contrast to the recent fortunes of the region's undoubted oil giant Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

Venezuela has proven reserves over four times those of Brazil's, even including the recent Tupi find.

But the convulsions brought on by the "Bolivarian revolution" of Hugo Chávez means that production is widely believed to be falling, with energy watchdog agencies saying Venezuelan production is well below its Opec quota and trending downwards.

While Petrobras has been charged with making Brazil self-sufficient in oil, it has otherwise been left relatively free of interference from the Brazilian government to operate as an independent oil company.

In contrast, PDVSA has been heavily politicised in recent years.

In 2002, its senior management staged a strike against what they saw as political interference in the traditionally autonomous company.

Mr Chávez defeated the strikers but the resulting sackings and resignations have left the company without thousands of technicians needed to run the industry. Profits from oil exports have been diverted from maintaining and expanding production into Mr Chávez's social programmes and aid for allies in the region.

"The way things are going, 10 years from now Brazil will be the only exporter in the region. Ecuador is running out of crude. Argentina is starved of investment and Venezuelan production is declining off the map.

"PDVSA production is plummeting," says Peter Zeihan, director of global analysis at Stratfor, a private US intelligence company.