Goodbody Stockbrokers says Britain is an "external cost" on Ireland in the foot-and-mouth crisis and the EU should examine the situation where a disease coming from abroad could have such an impact on our economy.
Mr Don Walshe, senior economist with the stockbrokers, says that, assuming Ireland loses its disease-free status as a result of the outbreaks in Britain, the cost to our economy in an "absolute disaster scenario", where Ireland gets the disease and European countries do not, could be £523 million (€664 million) on an annualised basis.
In that case, if markets outside Britain were closed to us, beef and dairy products could be sold into intervention, but at a 15 per cent price reduction, which would cost around £300 million. He says the closure of markets outside Britain could result in a cut of 1.4 per cent off Gross National Product fore casts.
The agribusiness industry in Ireland accounts for 6.9 per cent of output, and is seven times more important than the food industry is in Britain.
Mr Walshe is worried that if there is no outbreak of the disease here, the problem will not be perceived as a real threat, even though it is rampant in Britain.
Other effects would be potential reductions in profit from as little as 1 per cent to as much as 8 per cent in exposed plcs, limited exposure to crisis for the main banks and a 20 per cent decline in disposable agricultural incomes.
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