Fitch stays negative

RATINGS AGENCY Fitch says it is maintaining its negative outlook on Ireland’s rating, despite the measures introduced by the Government in the budget. The agency said the budget showed a commitment to fiscal consolidation and meeting its EU-IMF targets.

“The budget does not alter our negative outlook on Ireland’s ‘BBB+’ rating, which has been in place since April,” the agency said. “This reflects the risks to debt stabilisation, including risks to the economic recovery. Many years of consolidation, with very little room for slippage, will be needed to make Ireland’s public debt sustainable.”

Fitch said the economy would grow in 2012 but the euro zone debt crisis and possible recession in the region could endanger Ireland’s recovery.

“We calculate that even a small but cumulative fiscal slippage of 0.5 per cent of GDP each year to 2015 would see Ireland’s debt reach 121 per cent of GDP in 2015 and not stabilise,” the agency added. “This would compare with a peak of 116 per cent of GDP in 2013 under our baseline assumptions.”