IMF cuts global economic growth forecast for 2015

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2015, following a further slowdown in emerging markets and a weaker recovery in advanced economies.

Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent for 2015, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook update, lowering its July forecast by 0.2 percentage points.

The IMF said global growth declined in the first half of this year, and is now expected to be slightly lower than in 2014. Preliminary data suggests that global growth in the first half of 2015 was 2.9 per cent, about 0.3 percentage points weaker than predicted in April of this year.

It said recovery in recent months was broadly in line with the April forecast in the euro area, with stronger-than-expected growth in Ireland, Italy and Spain, sustained by recovering domestic demand, offsetting weaker-than-expected growth in Germany.

Recovery is most advanced in the United States and the United Kingdom, where monetary policy looks likely to tighten soon, but is more tentative in the euro area and Japan.

Growth in the United States was weaker than expected, despite a strong second quarter. This reflected setbacks to activity in the first quarter, caused by one-off factors, notably harsh winter weather and port closures, as well as much lower capital spending in the oil sector.

The IMF said pickup in advanced economies is tempered by lower growth in commodity exporters, particularly Canada and Norway, and in Asia outside of Japan.

The IMF said the increasing fragmentation of production across different countries - the so-called rise of global value chains – has meant the share of foreign value added in gross exports has gradually risen by about 10 per cent since the 1970s. However, for some economies, such as Hungary, Romania, Mexico, Thailand, and Ireland, the increase has been greater than 20 per cent.