German economy stutters as exports and production drop

German exports fell sharply in November and industrial output also declined, suggesting Europe’s largest economy ended 2014 on a weak note.

Seasonally-adjusted exports dropped for a second consecutive month, dipping 2.1 per cent, while imports pushed up 1.5 per cent, narrowing the trade surplus to €17.7 billion , data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Friday.

Economists had been expecting a more modest fall in exports of 0.2 percent. Industrial output decreased by 0.1 per cent as construction activity weakened and energy production fell, separate data from the economy ministry showed.

The headline figure was weaker than a consensus forecast for a 0.4 per cent increase. "Things are certainly not rosy. The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia conflict and the related economic uncertainty, is limiting growth," said Alexander Krueger, an economist at Bankhaus Lampe.

He added that while production - which rose by 1.0 per cent in the less volatile two-month comparison - probably boosted gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, the economy was unlikely to have grown by more than 0.2 per cent between October and December.

The disappointing figures came after data on Thursday showed demand for German industrial goods declining, with orders plunging 2.4 per cent due to fewer bookings for big-ticket items.

Most economists expect Germany to post only modest growth in the fourth quarter, rounding off a disappointing year which saw the economy contract in the second quarter and barely grow in the third.

There have been some positive signs for fourth-quarter growth though. Sentiment indicators took a turn for the better late last year and retail sales climbed in October and November. Full-year 2014 GDP data is due on Thursday. The government has forecast 1.2 per cent growth.

While Germany has traditionally been an export-oriented economy, shipments abroad have suffered this year as demand from weakened euro zone trading partners faltered and crises abroad hurt business confidence, leading to investment delays.

A breakdown of unadjusted trade data showed shipments to the European Union, Germany's largest export market, increasing by 4.8 per cent in November compared to the same period last year, while exports to countries outside of Europe dropped by 3.0 per cent.

Reuters