Bank of England set to keep policy steady

The Bank of England is unlikely to follow its Japanese counterpart today and pump fresh money into a stagnant economy, despite a new remit that gives it extra leeway to disregard above-target inflation.

Finance minister George Osborne tweaked the central bank's mandate two weeks ago, giving it stronger backing to continue ignoring inflation when it overshoots its target due to one-off factors.

The Bank of Japan - which has been under more overt political pressure to stimulate its economy - shocked markets earlier today when it pledged to double its government bond holdings within two years.

But only a handful of economists polled by Reuters last week expect the Bank of England to decide this month to add to the £375 billion of government bonds it bought between March 2009 and October 2012.

"For as long as you say there is a 2 per cent inflation target, I think what we have got at present is about as close as you can get without breaching the spirit of that," said Ross Walker, UK economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

Other economists only see a chance of more stimulus once Mark Carney - currently Canada's central bank chief - becomes governor of the Bank of England in July.

Mr Carney is believed to favour other ways to help the economy such as long-term promises of low interest rates.

British inflation has mostly been above target since the start of the financial crisis due to one-off price shocks - for example, higher sales tax - and the Bank of England's desire to avoid a surge in unemployment by tightening policy prematurely.

Inflation rose to 2.8 per cent in February, and the bank does not forecast it to fall below 2 per cent until early 2016.

However, the economy has been stagnant over the past two years. After a 0.3 percent contraction in the last three months of 2012, it risks tipping into its third recession in less than five years - though a March services survey released suggested it may eke out modest 0.1 percent economic growth.

"It should allay fears of a triple-dip recession ... and will remove any possibility of policy easing today," said Societe Generale economist Brian Hilliard.

Other economists still had concerns about the outlook for the rest of the year, however.

"I've just been rethinking do we grow at all this year? The third estimate for Q4 GDP showed real disposable incomes shrinking and I think there is more of that ahead. Inflation is picking up," said Alan Clarke of Scotiabank.

Conflicting pressures from high inflation and very weak growth help explain why the Bank of England's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee has been unusually split at its past two meetings.

BoE governor Mervyn King, markets expert Paul Fisher, and external MPC member David Miles all voted for an extra £25 billion of bond purchases, but failed to convince their other six peers.

Mr Walker said he expected the impasse to continue. "If there wasn't enough to budge them in February, there's not enough to make them move tomorrow."

March's policy minutes did not suggest either camp's position was softening. Indeed some opposed to more stimulus saw a new reason: the danger that looser monetary policy could trigger a further slide in sterling.

Last month sterling hit a two-and-a-half year low against the dollar and was some 8 percent down since the start of the year, until the minutes and comments from King that the currency was fairly valued helped stem its slide.

However a slim majority of economists think the Bank of England will restart asset purchases - perhaps as soon as May, when fresh quarterly economic forecasts may sway waverers.

Reuters