Dublin house prices fall ahead of new lending restrictions

House prices in Dublin fell in November for the first time in several months ahead of the introduction of new lending curbs.

However, the latest official figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show prices nationally are continuing to rise.

The CSO’s Residential Property Price Index indicated prices across the State rose by 0.5 per cent in November, and are now 16.2 per cent higher than a year ago.

The figures show property prices in the capital, however, dropped by 0.1 per cent last month, the first reverse since February, but were still up 22.4 per cent on an annual basis.

The decline in prices in Dublin comes as the Central Bank readies new measures to restrict lending for first-time buyers which are expected to dampen property price growth.

A breakdown of the figures show Dublin house prices, as opposed to property prices, fell 0.1 per cent during November and were 22.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, while apartment prices were 26.8 per cent higher on an annual basis.

However, the CSO cautioned that the figure for apartments was based on a low volume of trades and therefore highly volatile.

Even with the pick-up in prices over the last year, property values in Dublin remain on average 35.8 per cent lower than their 2007 peak, while apartments are still 44.3 per cent lower than their boom-time high.

The CSO’s data also show residential property prices in the Republic, excluding Dublin, rose by 1.2 per cent in November compared, and were 9.6 per cent higher on a yearly basis, a further sign that recovery in the housing market has now cemented across the country.

John McCartney of property agency Savills said the figures showed that price growth in Dublin was “beginning to soften” in contrast to the rest of the country. These contrasting trends reflected the displacement of demand from Dublin to the commuter counties, he said.

“For the last two years, cash sales has driven very strong price growth in Dublin. However, with cash buyers becoming scarcer, the traditional mortgage financed buyer has once again become the mainstay of the market.”

However, Juliet Tennent of Goodbody Stockbrokers said upward pressure on residential property prices was likely to continue for some time as increasing demand had so far seen a very slow supply response.

This point was echoed by Alan McQuaid of Merrion stockbrokers who said the underlying housing market was a lot stronger than the official data would suggest as the CSO figures were based on mortgage draw-downs and don’t include cash transactions.

Mr McQuaid said while a lack of supply was still pushing up prices in Dublin, a notable upswing in planning permissions was likely to improve supply.

Property Industry Ireland director Peter Stafford said: “It is no surprise that the last six months have seen crises with housing shortages, increasing rents and enormous pressure on social housing.”

“All parts of the housing sector are intertwined, and it is vital that 2015 is the year Ireland gets a coordinated national housing strategy to reflect this.”

“Next year, the outlook for house prices will be determined by the speed with which new houses come onto the market and underlying consumer confidence,” he added, noting that proposed the Government’s planning Bills, and the Central Bank’s new lending policy would have crucial roles to play in working with the property industry to bring stability to the housing sector.