Coalition’s ambitious strategy to get country back to work

The rain was coming down in slats over the Liffey as Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton set out a 10-year jobs master plan at the CHQ complex in the financial services centre. They kept the sunny side out.

Accompanied by Ministers Richard Bruton, Ged Nash and Damien English, the Coalition leaders held out the prospect of 221,300 jobs being created in the next five years. This would bring the number of people working in the State to 2.18 million by the end of the decade, with “full employment” restored and the unemployment rate somewhere between 5-6 per cent.

Put this in perspective. Take note first that the average pre-crash unemployment in Ireland was 4.5 per cent and the rate last month was 9.3 per cent. About 130,000 more people are at work now than when unemployment peaked in 2012, far more than might have been foreseen in the depths of crisis. But it must be measured against the loss of some 330,000 jobs during the crisis.

There’re still a long way back, notwithstanding the turnaround in the public finances and the impressive rates of economic growth which lie behind the present rate of job creation. Even if the plan is successful, it is only in 2020 that the actual number of people working would eclipse the pre-crash record. With the general election on the way, that’s a crucial target.

At the same time, the adoption of ambitious employment targets is predicated on economic growth continuing at a rate sufficient to add a net total of 44,000 new jobs every year between 2016-2020. This assumes no major interruption to Ireland’s present growth trajectory by any external or internal shock, an especially big assumption to make amid uncertainty about the performance of the Chinese economy and other emerging-market economies.

Mr Kenny spoke of eliminating boom-and-bust economics, but that seems like a chimera. Ireland’s small, open economy is more exposed than most to the vicissitudes of the global scene. Solid domestic policies can militate against poor conditions in the outside world, but such conditions cannot be waved away with a wand. That is especially so in an economy as heavily dependent as our own on foreign direct investment

Timeline

In addition, the 2020 target for full unemployment is a couple of years later than the 2018 timeline the Taoiseach mooted only a few months ago. Although the difference flows from a higher forecast for inward migration in figures from the Department of Finance which underpin the plan, some private sector economists say a rate below 6 per cent is still within grasp in 2018.

True, the latest Economic and Social Research Institute forecast suggests unemployment will reach 9 per cent by the end of 2015 and 8 per cent by the end of 2016. But many forecasts assume the exceptionally strong growth rate this year will taper in the years ahead.

Migration might still prove crucial, as it becomes more and more difficult to match jobs with skilled workers as employment growth continues. The first burst of job creation brought the unemployment rate below 10 per cent this year from 15.1 per cent little more than three years ago. Yet the challenge to pick up the remaining slack intensifies as the jobless rate drops.

To be fair, the plan takes note of external uncertainties, among them the slowdown in global growth and trade. Ireland’s structural issues are recognised too. “There are indications of upward cost pressures,” the document says. It notes the number of firms engaging in research is too low and finds job vacancies exceed the supply of workers with certain skills. It recognises the export base is narrow and too few Irish-owned firms are growing internationally.

The objective, of course, is to counter all that over time. Numerous strategic priorities are set out. They include policies to spur export-led growth and research activity in domestic firms; and to enhance the employment prospects of the unemployed.

A further priority is to boost employment potential in the regions, crucial given unemployment rates outside Dublin remain more elevated than in the capital.

Another is to expand the sectoral mix in the Irish economy. The plan notes, for example, that exporters accounted for only 19 per cent of new jobs during the construction boom. The objective is to bring that to 47 per cent by 2020 when tourism is included. That, too, is ambitious.