Analysis: Receipts ahead of expectations but spending up

Michael Noonan has already signalled he expects tax this year to come in €1.4 billion ahead of target. With receipts almost €900 million above profile in the first seven months, he is on track.

Tax payments reflect the sense of buoyancy in the economy and, by and large, restraint in expenditure. However, the Minister for Finance has been insisting he has no scope to go beyond a €1.5 billion expansion on budget day. At the same time, two figures jump out.

First is a €152 million health overspend. Nothing radically new there, though extra health money is rarely clawed back. Indeed, such trends tend to worsen.

As if to confirm the point, the health overspend at end-June stood at €33 million. The line was held for six months, but the system notched up a further €119 million in spending above target in July.That’s some €3.8 million per day. Of concern here is the risk that such trends increase as winter approaches.

Second, day-to-day spending in Tánaiste Joan Burton’s Department of Social Protection came in €76 million above target to end-July. With unemployment in general decline, welfare spending would be ordinarily expected to drop. Yet there was a year-on-year increase of €30 million. While new CSO figures showed that the unemployment rate held steady in July at 9.7 per cent, the rate was down from 11.2 per cent a year earlier. The lack of consequent savings is all too clear.

Underspenders

But €30.47 billion in voted expenditure came in €179 million below profile. Some €142 million was attributable to current savings, meaning Cabinet overspenders receive leeway from underspenders. Spending is ahead by €40 million on foreign affairs and transport, and by €8 million in the jobs department.

There’s nothing hugely urgent here, and the IMF refinancing deal means the Government is taking the benefit of lower debt servicing cost. At the end of the day, however, all the overspending adds up and it eats into the overperformance on the tax revenue front. The really big boost here is coming from rising corporation tax receipts, but returns in that bracket fluctuate.