John FitzGerald: Raising the cost of flying may be the necessary thing to do

In the 19th century when a young person emigrated to the US, it was unlikely they would ever see their parents again. The American wake was like a funeral. Over the rest of their lives, it was only through periodic letters that they remained in contact with their family. Literature and song have recorded the trauma of this separation for the huge numbers who left.

Today, while emigration is at a much lower level than in the past, there are still around 750,000 Irish-born people living abroad. The numbers are constantly refreshed by emigration, mainly of those in their 20s or early 30s, and generally on a temporary basis.

Over the past 25 years, we have also seen huge immigration into Ireland. Today almost 20 per cent of the population was born abroad, and their numbers now exceed the number of Irish emigrants.

In the late 1980s, when emigration from Ireland peaked, Aer Lingus advertised heavily inviting parents to visit their children abroad. Today, they no longer have to advertise to drum up this business. The ability of families to maintain contact across the sea is of major importance to all concerned, making the experience of migration completely different from the past. The desire of families to visit each other frequently is also shared by those living In Ireland who have come from elsewhere.

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The world’s richest countries must invest in effective, cheap technologies to tackle climate change

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The growing dispersion of population around the world has brought a rising demand for air travel to visit family and friends, adding another layer to the demand for purely tourist visits. Tourism and family visits are bigger than business travel. Though still important, business travel has been affected by the growth in virtual business meetings, facilitated by apps such as Zoom or Teams.

There is as yet no technological breakthrough for aviation that could match the rate of progress in reducing road transport emissions brought about by the introduction of electric vehicles

Given that air travel is very carbon-intensive, the rise in air traffic volumes is now a very significant contributor to global warming. Across the EU, emissions are growing rapidly, with air travel accounting for 14 per cent of transport emissions, and around 4 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions.

[ Decarbonising aviation will be a challenge ]

The introduction of modern fuel-efficient aircraft reduced fuel burned per passenger by about a quarter between 2005 and 2017. However, there is as yet no technological breakthrough for aviation that could match the rate of progress in reducing road transport emissions brought about by the introduction of electric vehicles (EVs).

Technological innovation on decarbonisation of road transport has been driven both by strong EU regulation, to some extent mirroring regulation in the US, and by the prospect of ever-increasing taxes on fossil fuel cars. The huge commitment by the worldwide auto industry to shifting production to EVs is not driven by environmental ideals, but rather by the knowledge that, without radical change, manufacturers will go out of business due to regulation and taxes aimed at decarbonising the sector.

Tax exemption

Aviation has escaped with a much lighter burden of regulation on emissions, and substantial exemption from taxation.

While flights within the EU have been included within the EU-wide emissions trading regime over the last decade, the impact has been blunted by the issuing of substantial free allowances to airlines. There is recent evidence, nonetheless, that this scheme has slowed the rise in emissions, especially on short-haul flights where rail is an alternative.

...there is very limited incentive for Boeing or Airbus to invest in finding zero-carbon technologies or to develop fuels that are less polluting and the engines that can use them

Without international agreement, it is more difficult to expand the scope of the scheme to cover all international flights. For example, if EU-wide emission taxes made flying to or within the EU much more expensive than flying elsewhere, it could result in significant switching of holiday travel from destinations within the EU, such as Greece and Spain, to nearby destinations such as Turkey, Morocco or the UK that are outside the EU and its carbon pricing rules.

If there are no internationally agreed regulations and taxes for aviation emissions, there is very limited incentive for Boeing or Airbus to invest in finding zero-carbon technologies or to develop fuels that are less polluting and the engines that can use them. We need to find other means to focus these mega-companies on preparing for a net-zero world.

[ Ireland's growing aviation sector is a cause for concern ]

Aviation will remain essential for island countries such as Ireland, and for places such as the US whose centres of population are far away from each other. Given slow progress in developing low-emission alternatives, flying may become the last bastion of fossil fuel use. From the planet’s perspective, it would be much better to speed technological development in aviation by means of tougher regulations and taxes. Such measures would also, inevitably, raise the cost of flying.