Declining dollar set to dominate summit's agenda

Overheard on Sunday in the food court of New York State's Central Valley designer store village: "I'm never shopping in Dublin again," writes Conor O' Clery in New York.

The speaker was one of two Co Meath women laden down with shopping bags from Reebok, Brooks Brothers, Prada and Etienne Aigner.

The cheap dollar, they said, had made it worth their while to come to the United States for a hectic shopping weekend.

But the surging euro, which makes America a shopping-mall paradise for Europeans, is threatening to derail the euro-zone's economic recovery by making exports too expensive.

When euro-zone officials, including the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, arrive at the palm-lined Florida resort of Boca Raton today for the Group of Seven (G7) summit, their main concern will be the declining dollar.

The finance ministers and central bank governors of Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, as well as of the European Central Bank and Ireland representing the European Presidency are also expected to discuss ways to improve the global economy, finance the reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan, cut off financing to terrorist organisations and assist developing countries.

The EU representatives will be looking first and foremost, however, for backing from the world's major industrial nations for words or deeds that will slow the euro's rise against the greenback. Since 2002, the euro has risen 40 per cent against the dollar, and the European Central Bank president, Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, has complained about the "brutal" effect on European companies.

Though 90 per cent of EU trade is conducted between member-states in the euro currency, a sustained period of a strong euro would worsen unemployment and stall economic reforms completely, in the opinion of Mr Jeffrey Garten, Dean of the Yale School of Management.

In the lead-up to the G7, European officials have increased their calls for a seemingly innocuous demand, that the summit endorses stability in the currency markets. They may not get the emphasis they want on "stable" currency rates, which would be taken as a sign that the US was serious in its repeated claim to support a "strong dollar".

On the other hand, Mr Trichet and Mr McCreevy will be none too happy if the communique issued at the end of the two-day meeting tomorrow highlights the role of "market forces" - the phrase preferred by the US Government in setting exchange rates.

The summit will be overshadowed by the fact that with a presidential election coming, the Bush administration does not seem overly concerned about the dollar's decline, which has benefited American exporters and helped renew growth.

Mr Jean-Pierre Jouyet, director of the French Treasury, said yesterday: "This G7 will not be the easiest I have known, the discussions are sure to be frank." Some analysts say a compromise is likely that would not change the dollar's weak trend against the euro.

The euro officials will also be pressing Asia's countries to play a less self-interested role concerning the low dollar.

China has benefited from the dollar's decline by continuing its practice of pegging the yuan to the euro, while Japan has intervened heavily to keep the yen from getting too strong and hampering its export-led recovery.

This means that the euro has to share an unequal burden of the dollar's decline, according to Mr Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at the Bank of New York.

The financial world will be watching closely to see if the communique shifts from the position adopted at the end of last September's G-7 meeting in Dubai, when finance ministers called for "more flexibility" in exchange rates.

This was a message to Japan to scale back its big currency interventions to keep the yen down against the dollar.

The dollar has continued downwards in Tokyo and now stands at its lowest point - 105 yen - since September 2000.

Mr Trichet said yesterday that all G7 countries had to make an effort in Boca Raton to improve the global economic situation. "We're not lecturing anyone," he said.

"We know that we have work to do and we know that the others also have work to do," Mr Trichet said.