Davos anxiety turns to US

As politicians and business leaders descended from their snow-covered retreat in Davos and headed for Zurich airport, they left with an impression of a deeply divided world facing formidable economic and political risks. Such pessimism is not unusual after the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, where experts are always on hand to warn authoritatively of doom around the corner.

This year was different, however, in that most of the economic anxiety focused on the United States, while Europe was seen as poised for an economic renaissance. The most notable change was in attitudes towards Germany, long seen as a sleeping giant that was holding back Europe's economic progress.

Germany's chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schröeder, told an appreciative audience of potential investors in Davos that his tough package of economic reforms was working and that his country had finally turned the corner. He pointed to Germany's robust performance as the world's biggest exporter for the second year running, as evidence that German companies were strong enough to compete with anything the rest of the world could offer.

The Commission president, Mr Jose Manuel Barroso, reinforced the impression that Europe is dealing with its structural problems and taking the steps needed to boost growth.

There was little evidence that Washington was taking a similarly proactive approach to its ballooning budget and current account deficits and few visitors to Davos predicted any imminent action to reduce the deficits. Without any sign of a reduction in the budget deficit, the dollar is expected to fall further, particularly against the euro.

Few members of the US administration were in Davos this year, partly because of the meeting's proximity to President George W Bush's inauguration and his planned visit to Europe next month. Many Americans who did make the journey left with the impression that Europeans had given up on the US for the next four years.

European insouciance may have been fuelled by the unexpected ease with which the euro-zone has survived the dollar's fall until now, with exports remaining buoyant. The dollar's weakness has the happy side-effect of easing the impact of rising oil prices, the second major threat to global economic stability.

Most American CEOs remained optimistic about their own companies' prospects in 2005, partly because so much of their business is conducted overseas. Economists are worried, however, that America's overvalued property market and its small household savings ratio could spell trouble if US interest rates rise sharply.

The US relies heavily on foreign investors, with Asian central banks buying about a third of US Treasury obligations and a major shift of investment patterns could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates to make lending more attractive.

Europe would not be immune from the impact of a US recession but the sheer size of the EU's internal market could limit the damage from an American downturn and an even weaker dollar.

In case Europeans were feeling too smug, a session on outsourcing suggested that few economic activities are sacrosanct in the multinationals' search for lower costs. Many manufacturing jobs have already moved to India, China and elsewhere but outsourcing experts said that up to 40 per cent of any country's economic activity could soon be conducted elsewhere.

The most enduring impact of this year's meeting at Davos could be on Africa, with the British prime minister, Mr Tony Blair, the French president, Mr Jacques Chirac and Mr Schröeder promising a step-change in the fight against poverty and disease.

Microsoft's Mr Bill Gates announced a donation of $750 million to fight diseases affecting the world's poorest and many business executives in Davos pledged to help fund an initiative to provide mosquito nets to protect African children from malaria.