Credit growth could spur rate rise

Eurozone M3 money supply data for September will reveal a further acceleration in credit growth and could intensify rate-hike expectations, analysts said in a Reuters poll.

The figures, expected to be released by the European Central Bank (ECB) early next week, could fix the spotlight on the ECB's next council meeting on November 4th following its recent warnings that its monetary stance is too accommodative.

According to the average forecast of 11 economists polled on Friday, the data will reveal annual M3 growth of 5.8 per cent compared with August's 5.7 per cent rise. The three-month average for M3 growth for September will rise to 5.7 per cent from August's 5.6 per cent, according to the poll. The ECB's reference value for money supply growth is 4.5 per cent.

"The ECB's focus on M3 makes the next figure critical for the assessment of the likelihood of a rate hike at the bank's meeting on November 4th, even though the indicator is still very volatile," said Mr John Biggs, chief economist at AIB in Dublin.

Credit growth to the private sector is expected to expand unabated as economic activity in the 11 nations comprising the euro area accelerates, analysts said.

"M3 is driven by strong credit growth to the private sector and the surge in demand for credit is backed by healthy confidence in industry and households," Mr Emmanuel Ferry of BNP in Paris said.

Credit granted to the private sector has been expanding by around 10 per cent since the end of the year, raising eyebrows at the ECB as the development may herald inflationary pressures at times of expanding economic growth.

Analysts said that rising long-term interest rates and a steepening yield curve could also indirectly boost short-term monetary aggregates.

"The expectations for higher interest rates in the future lead to stronger demand for credits now and those loans are invested in short-term instruments included in M3," said Mr Harald Finger at Deutsche Bank Research in Frankfurt.

The ECB now attaches additional importance to the figure, analysts said, after its president, Mr Wim Duisenberg, noted earlier in the month that the central bank's current monetary stance was "rather accommodative".

The ECB said in its latest monthly report that M3 growth above its reference value of 4.5 per cent was not simply due to data distortions caused by the switchover to the euro.