Consumer confidence rises

Consumer confidence has improved for the eighth month in a row and the number expecting conditions to improve now significantly exceeds those anticipating a downturn. These are the main findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi consumer confidence survey.

The latest survey, taken between April 6th and April 29th, shows that 34 per cent of those surveyed expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months, up four percentage points on the previous survey.

The numbers expecting conditions to weaken fell by four points to 20 per cent.Some 41 per cent of those surveyed expect conditions to remain the same, while 4 per cent were "don't knows".

The survey shows a clear upward trend in consumer expectations since last August, when at its low point only 7 per cent of respondents expected an improvement in the economy and 70 per cent anticipated a weakening.

The figures have improved in each successive survey since then, reflecting the improved international economic climate and the firm jobs market at home.

However, the combination of those expecting conditions to remain the same and those expecting them to worsen - 61 per cent - is still almost double those expecting an improvement, a reason to be cautious in looking at the implications for consumer spending.

Also, the latest survey was taken before the latest rise in oil prices and the follow through rises in petrol prices. There are some fears that this could affect consumer confidence and economic growth, which may be reflected in the next poll.

Indeed market analysts will be closely watching consumer and business confidence surveys in all of the major economies over the coming weeks to judge whether the oil price hike is having a significantly negative impact on sentiment.

The "Pulse" telephone survey, conducted by TNS mrbi, asks: "Thinking about the year ahead, do you think employment levels and the Irish economy in general are set to improve, weaken or remain the same?"

The figures continue to show much higher levels of confidence among men surveyed than women. Some 40 per cent of the men surveyed expect conditions to improve - up five points from the previous poll - compared to just 18 per cent anticipating a decline.

The comparable figures for women are 29 per cent taking the optimistic view and 22 per cent being gloomy, still a majority but much narrower than amongst the men.

Those in the workforce, meanwhile, are generally more upbeat than those who are at home. Some 35 per cent of those who define themselves as "working" expect conditions to improve, compared to 21 per cent expecting them to weaken and 42 per cent to stay the same. Among students, just 29 per cent expect an improvement and 23 per cent a weakening in the economy, while the 26 per cent to 23 per cent majority among housewives is even narrower.

The one group not in the workforce who have been notably upbeat for some months are retired people.

The latest survey shows that the percentage of retired people expecting an improvement has risen by six points since the last survey to 46 per cent, with just 12 per cent anticipating a weakening in economic conditions and 36 per cent saying they would stay the same.

Meanwhile the improvement in the jobs market may be reflected in the majority looking for economic improvement among the unemployed. For the first time in this category, the optimists outnumber the pessimists by a margin of 32 per cent to 26 per cent.

The figures show no major differences on a regional basis.

The most optimistic area is the "rest of Leinster" - outside Dublin - where 36 per cent expect conditions to improve and 16 per cent anticipate a weakening.

In Munster the majority is 35 per cent to 18 per cent, in Dublin it is 33 per cent to 23 per cent and in Connaught/Ulster it is 34 per cent to 23 per cent.

Looking at the traditional ABC "social class" breakdown, by far the most optimistic category is the "AB" one. In this category, 46 per cent expect conditions to improve and just 18 per cent anticipate a weakening.

The majority in the other categories is smaller, though it is positive in all cases.