Champagne is a little premature at Aer Lingus

So the rollercoaster ride at Aer Lingus continues. Soon after it nearly went to the wall, the airline now projects a €40 million profits on sales in excess of €1.2 billion.

The turnaround is impressive, but the celebrations at this stage would be premature.

With the recovery still a work in progress, it is indeed ironic that the self-same pilots who almost brought the company to its knees this summer should be clamouring to put privatisation back on the agenda.

But the time is not yet right for such a discussion. Internal factors suggest the recovery is still at the tentative stage and the investment is not exactly healthy.

Staff are grumbling about a pay freeze and they want movement before the survival plan is reviewed next February.

Some 2,000 people have left Aer Lingus leaving more work for those who remain. But while their pay demands are understandable, any return to strikes or threatened action would rapidly eat into the very profits they want to exploit.

In addition, the company wants to cut yet more costs as it moves to drive profits upward. It dropped €190 million from the bottom line this year and wants to trim another €130 million.

A €40 million profit is a lot of money for an organisation that originally projected a loss for the year of €130 million, but the profit margin will be about 3.33 per cent.

That is little league stuff compared with Ryanair, whose margins now top 20 per cent.

The traditional Aer Lingus defence against comparison with the Ryanair was that it was a full-service carrier.

Such an excuse is no longer valid because Aer Lingus itself is moving towards a low-cost model.

Post September 11th, there is a growing acceptance that the low- cost model is best.

In drumming up business even when markets are poor, it provides insulation against shocks in a vulnerable industry.

Aer Lingus admits itself that it still has a long way to go. Yet it is moving in the right direction, with internet sales, for example, now comprising 30 per cent of the total.

Its allure to investors lies in the potential to grow profits so there is reason to wait until the plan is bedded down further.

That leaves time too for the investment market to improve. With the Government finances deteriorating rapidly, however, the sale question might come quickly back onto the agenda.