Cantillon: Fed’s rate rise failed to live up to the hype

Well, that didn’t last long. The cheer with which the financial markets greeted the Fed’s rate increase – or rather the cautious comments accompanying it about the pace of future increases – ran out of steam quickly enough. By Friday “normal transmissions” had resumed on the markets, as weak oil prices and fears about economic growth led to equity prices falling back.

As oil slipped again on Friday, investors seemed to be asking whether this was due to a glut in supply, or was it a sign that economic growth rates – and thus demand – were slipping. Gas prices are also falling and the unseasonably mild weather on both sides of the Atlantic is not helping.

It would be a mistake to read too much into pre-holiday trading, with volumes traditionally thin. But just because the Fed got away with one increase without leading to any great upheaval does not necessarily mean it can repeat the trick again in 2016. Another rate increase could be on the cards in March or April, with a couple more slated in for later in the year, assuming the Fed sees the kind of economic growth it expects. The problem is that, to work, interest rate increases have to be slightly ahead of the economic curve, and the risk for equity markets will be if growth rates subsequently disappoint, or inflation does not pick up as expected.

The question remains where economic growth is going to come from. The situation in China is hard to read. Chinese economic growth at 6.9 per cent in the third quarter is a whisker below Ireland’s GDP growth rate, having been up near double digits for a number of years. Elsewhere many emerging markets remain under pressure. In the US, the recovery is now long-lasting, but it never seems to have reached full steam, while the euro zone still faces the familiar questions, even if the ECB has expressed optimism that its medicine is starting to work.

As we go into 2016, This growth dilemma will keep financial markets on edge.