Candidates wary of Irish `No' vote

Slovenia's pretty capital, Ljubljana, was looking its best this week in the early summer sunshine and the riverside cafes were thronged all day with lazy tourists. But inside government offices, officials were sweating as they made plans for the country's biggest media event since Slovenia became independent 10 years ago - next month's summit meeting between President George W Bush and Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

But for Slovenia's own future, a visit to Ljubljana next week by the President of the European Commission, Mr Romano Prodi, could be more significant. Mr Andrej Engelman, deputy director of Slovenia's Office for European Affairs, sees Mr Prodi's visit as a sign that the EU is finally taking enlargement seriously. "After the Nice summit, there has been a completely different approach from the memberstates. Suddenly, everyone is coming here," he said.

Officials in Warsaw, Budapest and the Estonian capital of Tallinn agree that the pace of negotiations has quickened since last December's summit. And although some of the candidate countries have reservations about elements of the Nice Treaty, their governments regard it as a welcome commitment by the EU member-states to move ahead with enlargement.

This is why a rejection of the treaty in next week's Irish referendum would be viewed throughout the candidate countries as a blow to their hopes of early membership of the EU.

"If this happens, everything will have to wait once again. Internal discussions within the EU would start again. So it could become an obstacle to enlargement," Mr Engelman said. Support for joining the EU has been falling throughout the candidate countries, although a majority in most states still favours membership. For some in central and eastern Europe, the prospect of sharing sovereignty within the EU is unwelcome after such a short period of real independence.

But it is the hardship of economic adjustment to the demands of EU membership that has alienated the greatest number, particularly older people and those dependent on farming. Most of the candidate countries enjoy a GDP per person that is less than half the EU average, so EU membership is likely to make them more prosperous.

The basic economic requirement for EU membership is that a candidate country should be able to withstand the competitive pressures of the single European market. Each country is required to adopt the acquis communautaire, a vast body of laws and regulations governing almost every aspect of life in the EU.

If a country feels that it cannot immediately apply all the rules - on environmental standards, for example - while remaining competitive, it may ask for a transitional period to adapt to the new rules. But all such requests must be backed by substantial evidence and must remain as limited as possible.

Many candidate countries complain that, as the enlargement negotiations are moving towards their final phase, the 15 EU member-states have started making demands of their own. But unlike the candidate countries, the EU states have not been required to present rigorous arguments to support their requests.

This week, the EU agreed to demand a transitional period for the free movement of labour from the candidate countries into the existing member-states. This will mean that countries such as Germany and Austria could ban workers from eastern Europe for up to seven years after enlargement.

"It seems unfair that they can just present these demands when they like, without going through the rigorous process demanded of us. It's not unexpected but it leaves a sour taste among our citizens," according to one Polish official.

For Poland, the most difficult negotiations are likely to concern agriculture, which employs more than 20 per cent of the country's population. The EU has indicated that it will not extend direct income support to Polish farmers and no money has been set aside for such a move under the budget arrangements that run to 2006.

Poland argues that its farmers should receive the same treatment as those elsewhere in the EU and claims that the EU could afford to extend the present system to candidate countries while remaining within budget.

The EU budget is limited to 1.27 per cent of the EU's GDP but only 1.09 per cent is being used at present. As the negotiations enter their final phase, the EU will come under pressure to allocate more resources to the project. But the EU's big paymasters, especially Germany, are reluctant to shoulder the cost of welcoming new member-states.

Meanwhile, Spain is determined to hold on to EU subsidies to its poorer regions after enlargement and all EU member-states are limbering up for a big argument about Common Agricultural Policy reform.

Mr Engelman believes that, in the end, the enlargement negotiations will come down to a long, bitter argument about money.

"The major problem will be negotiations within the 15. That will be much more difficult than any differences they have with us," he said.

Online

All articles in the series New Economy New Europe can be found at www.ireland.com/special/nice