Buckley and bank enjoying robust health

ANALYSIS:  This  time last year AIB chief executive Mr Michael Buckley said he was two stone lighter and felt 10 years older.

He was of course referring to the days immediately after he was forced to announce that rogue trader, John Rusnak, had perpetrated a $691 million (€643 million) fraud at the bank's US subsidiary, Allfirst.

Yesterday he was clearly delighted to show that he and AIB now both enjoyed robust good health and had shown remarkable resilience.

AIB's results come in the same week Rusnak began a seven-and-a-half year sentence at Fort Dix prison in New Jersey for the fraud. Yesterday, Mr Buckley said the group's lawyers would probably take another couple of months to examine the role of third parties in the fraud to determine whether it can recoup any monies through an insurance claim. "I wouldn't make an assumption that nothing new will come up," he said.

Most observers believe it is unlikely that any funds will be recovered. AIB has also said that it would not be suing its former auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers, in relation to the fraud.

The bank will hope that its impressive performance in 2002 will restore investor confidence. Profits came in slightly ahead of market expectations and exhibited strong growth across its Irish, British and Polish operations.

The sale of Allfirst to the US M&T bank is expected to clear the regulatory hurdles by the end of March and will mark a fresh start for the bank in its foray into banking across the Atlantic.

Rusnak's losses and much of the additional expense suffered by AIB in cleaning up his mess came out of the bank's 2001 profits, wiping out more than 60 per cent of its earnings. Mr Buckley's insistence that it was a "body blow" rather than a fatal one has been proved correct.

Mr Buckley said that, from the beginning of his tenure, he believed Allfirst was not a long-term proposition. "Our position within M&T offers great growth potential. M&T is one of the most successful banks in the US and there is nothing stopping us from increasing our shareholding in M&T over time," he said.

In terms of its Irish business, AIB remains very confident that it can continue to deliver strong growth in lending and believes the huge increase in the Irish workforce can underpin its progress for some years yet.

Mr Buckley said that, in January 2003, large corporates had been battening down the hatches and had not been actively taking up banking services. The small business sector had remained strong, he added. "If there is massive fallout from the Middle East, we won't escape but this is a more resilient economy than we had 10 years ago."

An improved performance in Poland comes ahead of the merger benefits that are expected to begin to flow this year and further boost its profitability in 2004. Mr Buckley said there may be acquisition opportunities for the bank in Poland in the medium term but that it was primarily focused on achieving organic growth.

The bank recorded a liability of €482 million on its staff pension fund at December 2002.