Bank sale shows Russia is looking outward

Share placing of giant Sberbank shows a resolve to compete in the wider global economy, writes Conor Sweeneyin Moscow.

Despite growing fears of a new cold war, Russia's government shows no signs of turning back the ideological clock, with a new wave of large-scale privatisations just getting under way.

The Kremlin hopes to tap into the current consumer boom through the massive share placing of Sberbank, the country's largest savings bank, currently under way.

Apart from domestic sell-offs, both state and private Russian firms appears set to continue their acquisitive trail abroad, especially in sectors of strategic interest, like energy, technology and aviation.

For example, President Putin announced this week his desire for Russia to raise its stake in EADS, the parent company of Airbus.

The Kremlin's current ambitions should not be misunderstood, argues Roland Nash, the chief strategist with Renaissance Capital. "Russia sees itself very much as part of the modern, global economy, albeit a country with unique assets and interests.

The country competes for influence and authority, but competes with the same interests and the same goals, in the same forums and, largely speaking, according to the same rules as just one among many other countries," he argued this week.

Talk of a new cold war ignores the battle between communism and capitalism, which no longer exists between America and Russia. "A very different situation from when the Soviet Union struggled with the US for entirely different ideological visions while the rest of the world looked on. Applying the term 'cold war' simply encourages the antipathy and withdrawal that the term itself implies."

Apart from a more activist foreign policy, Roland Nash believes the new drive by Russia to assert itself will also stimulate economic policies too.

First, though, comes the secondary offering at Sberbank, which will for the first time create a liquid market in the bank's stock, which has been closely held until now with very little traded publicly. It's expecting to net around €8 billion to fund expansion plans through the part-privatisation of one of the most profitable large banks in Europe and the oldest in Russia, now valued at almost €70 billion. Ireland's AIB has a market capitalisation of around €20 billion, by comparison.

Ranked number 11 in terms of size in Europe, Sberbank hopes to expand its loan book dramatically thanks to the new equity raised. At the moment it ranks just ahead of Deutsche Bank and just behind Société Générale in terms of market capitalisation.

Should Russia's current retail growth continue as expected, then Sberbank appears set to benefit, although there are also concerns about the sharp increase in bad debt levels for consumer loans, according to a recent warning from the Russian Central Bank - the first strong hint of a possible setback to the surge in recent years.

The partial sell-off at Sberbank, where the state will continue to control around 60 per cent of shares for the moment, marks the start of a busy year for further share offerings in Russia.

Other State banks such as Vneshtorbank, some of the giant electricity utilities, former assets of Yukos and possibly another large slice of state-controlled oil firm Rosneft are all expected to be floated on the Russian or international stock markets in the months ahead.

There has already been a steady flow of public offerings from privately owned Russian firms, notably the offering last November of more a than a billion euros in equity by steel giant Severstal.

Up to 30 per cent of shares in Aeroflot in the hands of another oligarch, Alexander Lebvedev, and the privately owned bank Rosbank are also expected to come to market in the months ahead.

But Sberbank stands out, simply because of its sheer scale - it has 20,000 branches stretching right across the vast country.

But with individual shares costing just under €3,000 each, not many of the them are falling into the hands of small investors.

Instead, it's believed that many wealthy Russians and a smaller number of international investors have bought up the stock offered on the Russian stock market.

Some international investors were put off investing both by the complex paperwork, the high valuation put on the bank and reservations about the banking system in Russia.

The final placement was lower than expected, although Russian analysts were enthusiastic about the future performance of the share price in the 165-year-old institution.

Deutsche UFG commented on the "healthy demand" for the offering, while AlfaBank believes the price per share could climb by nearly €1,000 per share to reach its forecast target.

"According to the Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin, the book exceeded €7.7 billion; but given the cut-off price, the increase in the bank's capital may amount to €7 billion. This is slightly below the €7.7 billion we assumed when establishing our new target price, but given the strong placement price this news is also positive," said Natalia Orlova of AlfaBank.

Early next month, it's expected that some of the final lucrative assets held by Yukos will also be auctioned off, with estimates on the value varying wildly, but somewhere between €5 billion and €15 billion.

The energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft are expected to try and buy up the two main production units up for sale, from the ashes of the bankrupt private oil company, which was the largest in the country at the start of the decade until its main shareholders faced a barrage of legal actions.

The Russian exchequer hasn't lost its interest in buying into mainstream European business either, despite the apparent rebuff to Gazprom last year when it considered a bid for the British gas utility Centrica. Gazprom has also reacted angrily against the latest European Commission plans to break up existing large-scale EU energy giants, such as Eon, which suggests it may be planning a further attempt to buy into downstream distributors of its energy supplies.

Although Russia was told last year its presence on the board of EADS would not be welcomed by the leaders of France and Germany, it nevertheless seems set to increase its stake in the parent company of Airbus, according to Mr Putin.

By taking a stake it would lead to "meaningful co-operation, which would be interesting and useful not only for Russian producers but for their European partners", he claimed after meeting visiting French ministers this week.

He suggested this was part of his country's strategy to spread its economic interests outside its current dependence on oil and gas exports and should not be interpreted as a "step in the direction of an unfriendly acquisition", he said.