April shoppers boost sales by 6.5% but Easter distorts trend

The retail sector was afforded a healthy boost during April as consumers raised their spending levels in the weeks around Easter.

New figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show the value of retail sales in April was 6.5 per cent higher than in the same month of the previous year.

The volume of sales, which strips out the effect of pricing, was 3.2 per cent stronger. By both measures, April offered the highest rate of annual growth since January.

Economists were cautious on discerning hard trends in the numbers, however, warning that the timing of Easter in the middle of April had distorted the overall picture.

Figures for the three months ending in April, which the CSO said offer a better indication of underlying trends, showed a 1 per cent fall in sales volume on the preceding three-month period.

When compared to the same three months of 2002, a modest 0.9 per cent increase was noted.

Friends First chief economist Mr Jim Power said the figures proved that, while retail spending was moderating, the consumer remained "the brightest spot in the economy".

Mr Power said it was difficult to envisage how consumers would behave over coming months, however, as a range of factors came to bear on their behaviour.

Issues such as job uncertainty and the cost of living would, he said, be balanced against declining interest rates and falling inflation.

But in the end he expects the consumer's positive contribution to the economy to be maintained.

Mr Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB Bank, described the overall April figures as "reasonably healthy", but also acknowledged the skewing effect of Easter.

Mr Hughes said the annual expansion may also have been boosted by a low base in the same month of 2002, when retail spending suffered in the wake of the rush to open Special Savings Incentive Accounts.

"There is still an element of life in the Irish consumer," Mr Hughes said, concluding that the consumer habits evident in the latest numbers were "sensible".

A breakdown of spending habits in March, the last month for which detailed sectoral figures are available, shows that while consumers may have cut back on areas such as alcohol and tobacco over recent months, they have continued to spend on more practical items such as furniture and hardware.

Mr Hughes described this trend as "an orderly adjustment".

"It's sensible consumers doing sensible things," he said.