BioNTech/Pfizer’s mooted EU deal for 70m Covid shots threatens rivals

A proposed deal between BioNTech/Pfizer and the European Union for about 70 million Covid-19 shots a year until 2026 threatens to push rivals Moderna, Novavax, and Sanofi out of the market, risking the regional prevention of Covid-19 being left to just one product.

The bloc is negotiating an amended deal with Pfizer despite the European public prosecutor opening a criminal investigation into their original agreement. The fresh proposal includes a new provision for member states to pay half price – about €10 – for each cancelled dose, according to people close to negotiations, who also confirmed the annual 70 million figure. The newer contract would allow the EU to upgrade to newer vaccines tailored to any future variants, two of those people said.

Poland and some other central European countries are refusing to sign the amended deal because they do not want to pay for cancelled doses, according to two of the people. But if these holdouts can be persuaded, a revised deal would highlight the near-monopoly status enjoyed by BioNTech/Pfizer across the bloc.

Health officials, including European Medicines Agency chief Emer Cooke, have been clear they believe portfolio diversification is crucial to hedge against any resurgence of the virus, or the emergence of new variants.

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A revised agreement between the bloc and BioNTech/Pfizer would also pose an existential question for other drugmakers’ Covid-19 vaccination programmes. Rivals’ order books with the EU have been significantly smaller throughout the pandemic.

“If [BioNTech/Pfizer] supply around 70 million doses per year for the next few years, that’s pretty much the totality of the market,” said one person familiar with the negotiations.

Pfizer declined to comment, citing confidentiality, as did the Commission. Pfizer said discussions had been conducted “in good faith by all parties” and that it was committed to finding “pragmatic solutions” to address public health.

Both Sanofi and Novavax previously committed to orders with the EU that were much smaller than the headline numbers announced, people familiar with the matter said. About 90 per cent of doses delivered have since sat unused in warehouses, with a large proportion being destroyed, or slated for destruction. This is because they either passed their expiration dates, or there was no demand for them, according to multiple European officials.

Sanofi insisted that its doses were not being destroyed and the 60 million doses it has delivered to EU countries were being used or would be used in autumn vaccination campaigns. The Paris-headquartered company said it was “confident” its vaccine remained a “valuable option”.

Novavax, whose share price has tanked 97 per cent from 2021 highs after warning of “substantial doubts” over its future, ran into significant manufacturing issues and ended up delivering doses with less than three months’ shelf life in 2022, people familiar with the matter said. Another said that the US drugmaker replaced the doses that had expired for free.

A Novavax spokeswoman said it was “not uncommon for more vaccine doses to be made available than are ultimately used before reaching their expiration date. This has been the case during the pandemic, which by its nature, is unpredictable.” Novavax was “committed” to continuing to deliver its vaccine, she added.

Meanwhile, Moderna’s doses have all been delivered and no new EU deal is in effect, according to a person familiar with the company.

Moderna said in a statement: “There must be a diversified supply of vaccines to mitigate future variants of concern and ensure adequate and mitigated supply.”

The new EU negotiations come as the European public prosecutor is investigating texts between Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Pfizer’s chief executive, Albert Bourla, before the deal was done. Brussels has refused to publish those messages. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2023