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  • irishtimes.com - Posted: January 4, 2010 @ 10:50 am

    Tipping into Twenty Ten

    Jim Carroll

    It’s not just all about resolutions at the sharp end of a new year. As is now customary at the start of every year, the tipping has begun in earnest, with various music pundits and observers attempting to show that they know what new bands will make a splash – any kind of splash – in the next 12 months.

    But before I throw my hat into the ring, let’s have a look back at what I said 12 months ago (you can follow that link to read what my fellow tipsters had to say for themselves):

    “I’m putting a few euro on Passion Pit, Hockey, Dinosaur Pile-Up (the return of grunge), Chairlift, Villagers and Little Boots to make a splash in 2009. Wavves, AKA San Diego kid Nathan Williams, will provide plenty of No Age, buzzy, noisepop highs, and also keep an eye and ear on London’s Three Trapped Tigers, Manchester’s Everything Everything, Australia’s Temper Trap and, from the Liberties in Dublin, Imelda May. I’m also keen to hear more from the excellent Langhorne Slim, French band The Do and Swedish producer Kleerup, who has already proven he knows his way around whip-smart pop via his work for Lykke Li and Robyn.”

    Well, swings and roundabouts to be sure. While some of the acts like Passion Pit and Hockey did very well (and no, I didn’t expect Imelda May to end up playing the O2 by years’ end either), I’m still waiting for some of the others to come good. I’m assuming The Do spent ‘09 in the recording studio and maybe Kleerup was there with them.

    Most of all, there is the question of what exactly we’re tipping these acts to do. After all, in the brave new world of the 21st century music business, there are so many different definitions of success. I’m certainly not expecting any of the above to become the biggest noise on the planet because that game is well and truly over. You can pin that state of affairs on the lack of investment capital (and patience) which labels now have at their disposal and assorted new market realities. In truth, few tipsters really expect their bets to become as big as the Kings Of Leon overnight (well, bar Alan McGee and perhaps those who rise to the bait and comment on his tips). All tipsters know that a band require time, tenacity, tunes and a huge amount of luck to get anywhere at all.

    But tips also hopefully reflect the reality that acts don’t need to become blockbuster names to keep on keeping on. A band like Dinosaur Pile-Up could well have waited for a grunge bandwagon to roll in and carry them away, but the Leeds’ trio instead played a ton of shows and festivals in 2009 and are probably very happy with their lot 12 months on from that excellent “My Rock & Roll” single. If they’re still making music and winning fans five years from now, they’ll probably be delighted. And that’s a good benchmark as any for all the acts who come up trumps in the current tipping tombola.

    After the jump, my 10 for 2010 feature, as published in The Ticket last week. It’s a list of 10 acts you or may not have already heard about, but which I think you’re going to dig in the next 12 months and beyond.

    It is the time of year when music writers resemble Janus, that old Roman god with the two noggins. We spend half of December looking back to review the year that was and the other half of the month looking ahead to preview the bands we think will make a splash in the year to come.

    Everyone on the music-writing beat is at it. There is suddenly a bunch of instant A&R experts tipping acts like they’re wandering around Leopardstown with the form card in one hand and a bundle of tenners in the other.

    Because of this seasonal mania for tipping, record labels start spinning new acts from October onwards, in the hope that some of the hype will rub off on their charges. The BBC Sound of 2010 poll, the new-band gospel according to 165 UK journalists, broadcasters and bloggers, is eagerly pored over for signs of who might come out on top.

    Tipping bands is far from an exact science. Some bands get the nod long before they’re ready to take on the world. Last year, for instance, this writer was tipping a great Manchester band called Everything Everything on the back of one fantastic single – “Sufragette Sufragette”. In 2009, the band released two more singles, signed a major record deal and are now on everyone else’s tipping radar.

    There are also long-range tips which come good. Back in December 2005 in a feature in The Ticket, Today FM’s head of music, Brian Adams, tipped Lisa Hannigan for solo success. At the time, she was still Damien Rice’s sidekick and a solo career was not on her mind. A few years later and, well, we all know what happened there.

    Then, there are the acts which don’t feature in any of these crystal-ball gazing exercises who make a splash. This time last year, very few were tipping – or had even heard of – The xx, bar a few such as Irish-based website Ragged Words. Within 12 months, The xx had one of the albums of the year to their credit.

    So, as you gaze at The Ticket’s 10 for 2010, it’s definitely a case of caveat emptor . Many of the acts we’re tipping here have already been profiled or highlighted in the weekly New Music column, but we think they’re going to do a whole lot more in 2010. Now, does someone want to give us a hand to start a record label?

    MIKE SLOTT

    Dublin-born Mike Slott could be the next hip-hop/electronica producer to step up to the next level. Slott’s education in beats began at an early age (his cousin Oisín Lunny was in Marxman and used to send him hip-hop mix tapes), but he really got into motion when he moved to Glasgow.

    There, he started hanging out with Hudson Mohawke and formed Heralds Of Change, as well as working with the city’s Lucky Me collective. After featuring on several singles, EPs and compilations, Slott has just released debut mini-album “Lucky 9teen”, a perfect showcase for his sprawling beats, sci-fi atmospherics and deep grooves. Don’t be surprised if the Dubliner begins to receive a much higher profile in 2010.

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    TWO DOOR CINEMA CLUB

    The name of the album is “Tourist History” and it’s a release that will produce plenty of good vibes for Bangor’s Two Door Cinema Club next year.

    Here’s a group whose mix of hugely melodic pop and quirky electronica is just what 2010 ordered. Alex Trimble, Kevin Baird and Sam Halliday have been working together since 2007, though they’ve known each other since their days in the scouts. TDCC cut their teeth on the road, touring with The Black Kids, Iglu Harty, The Wombats and Metronomy.

    They’ve already shown they know their way around catchy, radio-friendly pop tunes with the lush “Something Good Can Work” single, but advance listens to “Tourist History” show they’ve moved to another level entirely.

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    THE DRUMS

    How good are The Drums? Well, they’re the only surf-pop vagrants and beach-bum dreamers we’re tipping this years with an appreciation for the late, great Tony Wilson’s Factory label and 1950s and 1960s pop-culture.

    From New York by way of Florida, their debut EP “Summertime!” was infectious jangly pop with breezy, giddy tunes such as “I Felt Stupid” and “Let’s Go Surfing”. They were one of the stand-out acts at last October’s CMJ new band jamboree, with people raving about the quartet’s live show.

    They play a ton of shows in the UK in February as they join up with the Shockwaves NME awards tour, so expect the buzz to become deafening after that.

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    SURFER BLOOD

    Surfer Blood have the catchy indie rock hooks and harmonies everyone else will want to cog. They’ve set their stall out with tunes such as “Floating Vibes” and “Swim (To Reach the End)” and the buzz has been quite something.

    Surfer Blood’s album, “Astro Coast”, is coming out early in the year on Kanine, the label that nurtured Grizzly Bear and Chairlift. After a bunch of studio sessions failed to produce anything really earth-shattering, the band took over a dormitory room at the University of Florida, spent their scholarship cash on equipment and recorded the album. Melody, mischief and melancholy and timeless power-pop – another reason why 2010 will be a damn good year for new music.

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    DUM DUM GIRLS

    There is, as far as we can make out, only one Dum Dum Girl. Her name is Dee Dee and when she’s not making a fabulous riffy, muddy, fuzzy, freaky racket, she works as a librarian in Los Angeles. How long she’ll be able to juggle the jobs of organising books and making noise in 2010, especially as she’s signed to Sub Pop and will have a debut album – “I Will Be” – to plug, remains to be seen. To date, though, she’s handled the day job and other activities quite well.

    There have already been a couple of singles and live shows (where her band features members of Crocodiles, Crystal Stilts and Blank Dogs). Soundwise, Dee Dee is all about the buzz and she knows, as well as we do, that coy, shy noise-pop like this never goes out of fashion.

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    NOT SQUARES

    Every time we’ve seen Belfast trio Not Squares live, we’ve left the venue reeling. Offstage, Michael Kinloch, Keith Winter and Ricki O’Rawe are mild-mannered, polite young men. Onstage, they change into raving beasts eager to pin you to the back wall with their ferocious punktronica.

    Their forthcoming single “Asylum” will make you jump up and down with glee. Here’s a hearty indication that the trio’s brash, belligerent, exuberant sounds can also work in the recording studio.

    That single is due on the Richter Collective label, but 2010 will probably see Not Squares unleash singles on a couple of different imprints. There should also be an album at some stage and, naturally, many opportunities to go buckwild to them in a room near you.

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    THE MIDDLE EAST

    Australia is the new Canada, and the ones at the top of the queue right now are The Middle East. From Townsville in Queensland, within spitting distance (kind-of) of the Great Barrier Reef, The Middle East make superb atmospheric music. Listen to their self-released five-track EP and lose yourself in their gorgeously folky tunes, perfectly-pitched sounds and subtle sense of drama.

    If they go on producing tunes as cracking as “Blood”, their current spooked calling card, The Middle East can probably take a pew alongside Grizzly Bear or Bon Iver. Expect them to be one of the success stories at South By Southwest 2010.

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    FERGUS & GERONIMO

    What was initially a side project for Denton, Texas dudes Andrew Savage and Jason Kelly has turned into one hell of a big deal. The watercolour artist and pre-school teacher have discovered that there is far more interest in Fergus Geronimo and their sunnyside, fizzy, ramshackle pop tunes than there ever was in their other acts.

    There have already been three singles from the duo, with hip imprints Tic Tac Totally, Transparent and Woodsist getting in on the action. “Tell It (In My Ear)” is the one we keep going back to, a song Simon Garfunkel would have been proud to claim, had they stopped counting the cars on the New Jersey turnpike and got hip to scuzzy surf-pop instead.

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    ELLIE GOULDING

    One listen to Ellie Goulding’s voice and her songs may have you joining her fanclub. Two tunes in particular stopped us in our tracks: her debut single “In The Sheets” for Neon Gold and her spine-tingling, grandstanding version of Bon Iver’s “The Wolves”. This lass has class.

    A former drama student who dropped out of college to concentrate on music, Goulding has worked with Frankmusik, Burial and Starsmith. It was with producer Starsmith that Goulding really hit the jackpot; the duo produced a ream of magnetic electronic pop songs. She enters 2010 with a major label deal in place, a debut album ready to go and the mantle of most-tipped on her shoulders. Sure, what could go wrong?

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    HOLLY MIRANDA

    Those in search of warm, cooing, glowing pop music that charms and entices should note Holly Miranda’s name. Her forthcoming debut album, “The Magician’s Private Library”, is chockablock with those particular flavours.

    Produced by TV On The Radio’s David Sitek, the album has ethereal tunes and subtle kinks which may remind some of Feist and Cat Power. Just cop a listen to “Forest Green Oh Forest Green” and you’ll also be bowled.

    Formerly lead singer with The Jealous Girlfriends, the New York-based Miranda has already enjoyed a plug for her music on Kanye West’s blog. Mark our words: West won’t be the only one shouting about her in 2010.

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  • 33 Comments

    1.
    January 4, 2010
    11:08 am

    “Most of all, there is the question of what exactly we’re tipping these acts to do. After all, in the brave new world of the 21st century music business, there are so many different definitions of success. I’m certainly not expecting any of the above to become the biggest noise on the planet because that game is well and truly over. You can pin that state of affairs on the lack of investment capital (and patience) which labels now have at their disposal and assorted new market realities.”

    interesting article here that deals in part with that issue http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/03/arts/music/03indie.html

    “What was once always on the brink of something bigger has become Balkanized, and the process of genre subdivision has hidden away bands in ever tinier and more obscure pigeonholes, affecting even the best and most widely known among them. Dirty Projectors, for example, has had about as much acclaim as any indie-rock band could hope for in 2009, even landing on the cover of New York magazine, and yet sales of their latest album, “Bitte Orca” (Domino), are only about 50,000 copies, less than Lady Gaga sells in a week.”

    Comment by Daniel
    2.
    January 4, 2010
    11:12 am

    Daniel – thanks for that link What will be interesting to see if how the business deals with this new state of affairs. If you’re a pessimist, it’s all doom and gloom and “oh vey, only 50,000 sales”. If you’re an optimist, you’ll see that 50,000 US sales as a fanbase and cut your costs to suit that projected revenue in the future.

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    3.
    January 4, 2010
    11:41 am

    Hi Jim,
    Slightly off topic, but I came across this the other day and thought it was an interesting idea as to how some folk view the singles charts now

    http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/music/news/a193339/girls-aloud-fans-launch-top-ten-campaign.html

    Comment by Leigh O'Gorman
    4.
    January 4, 2010
    11:57 am

    Happy new year Jim. First good gig announcement of the new year, Wolf Parade in Vicar St on May 20th.

    Comment by Ian
    5.
    January 4, 2010
    12:06 pm

    I’d love it if Mike Slott gets the props he deserves this year. Last year he was making some ripples in the pond of weird hip hop noises but thats all he made considering the impact Hud Mo had, which completely overshadowed Mike. I’ve a feeling once again this year we’ll be hearing more of Hud rather then Mike.

    Comment by carnie
    6.
    January 4, 2010
    12:16 pm

    carnie – mike slott’s mini-album is delicioius. What I’m waiting to see if which one of those producers will land a mainstream album gig and then if there will be rush for that sound. As things stand, there was a ton of really swell releases in that hip-hop/electronica field last year – Dam-Funk, Dorian Concept, HudMo, that awesome All City compilation etc – so hopefully more of that kind of thing in ‘10.

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    7.
    January 4, 2010
    12:51 pm

    Jim – my recollection (or possibly my imagination) is that an artists gets about €1-€2 per album sold out of which they owe their advance, expenses etc. (Is that about right or should I stop working off that seminal Albini article about record deals?) A four (wo)man band needs to make clear profit of €150,000 a year or €3,000 a week in order to earn the average industrial wage of about €37,000 each. Maybe less if they can avail of the artist tax exemption Even with gigs/merchandise it’s hard to see many bands doing that. I often wonder how many bands do their sums before deciding to turn pro.

    PS: On your question about what are bands being tipped to do – how about which acts from 2010 will still be making music in 2020?

    Comment by Mumblin' Deaf Ro
    8.
    January 4, 2010
    12:54 pm

    PPS: looking through last year’s tips I am amazed that someone from Sony knows I exist.

    Comment by Mumblin' Deaf Ro
    10.
    January 4, 2010
    12:59 pm

    MDR – that Albini article is way, way out of date. He was talking in terms of major labels and the sizable advances for new rock acts which were once in vogue. As an aside, that Albini article always got on my goat because he ignored the fact that indie labels were just as good at shafting acts and negotiating dodgy contracts as any major label.

    In terms of the sums above, I really don’t know the sums because they would vary from act to act depending on what the act was doing, what level they were at, if they were touring abroad a lot etc. I would be frankly amazed if many acts were getting anywhere near the average industrial wage above, especially when you factor in that any independent act (ie one who has not signed away their rights to a label or are out of contract) will be reinvesting gig/merch/sales revenue into their band for studio time, equipment, crew wages etc etc.

    As regards “which acts from 2010 will still be making music in 2020″, we could start by looking at what happened to the acts tipped by the BBC Sound of 2005 poll – http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/4149005.stm

    And as for the Man from Sony – Barry is very much on the ball when it comes to what’s happening here.

    john – thanks for the list – happy 2010 to u too

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    11.
    January 4, 2010
    1:01 pm

    2010 the year of wonky hip-hop, mike slott is a huge talent

    Comment by petee
    12.
    January 4, 2010
    1:04 pm

    Ooops! Number 9 above was supposed to be http://www.myspace.com/ganglian

    Comment by John Hennessy
    13.
    January 4, 2010
    2:33 pm

    Shamrock Rovers to win their first league title since 1993/1994.

    Tony MCoy to finally win the Grand National with Butler’s Cabin, currently at 33/1.

    A person or band will win the Choice Music Prize, experience tells me not to make a more solid prediction!

    My Bloody Valentine to make a shock album announcement when we’re least expecting it.

    Peace, love and light to all. Including you Sir Carroll!

    Comment by Eamon Sweeney
    14.
    January 4, 2010
    2:52 pm

    happy new year all!…

    i have given up on trying to be cutting edge… so this year (and last year for the first time), i have completely ignored all tips and made sure that i haven’t bought any debut albums at all…. because 90% of them are by bands who are here one minute and gone the next… and those are the ones i look back at and never listen to any more…

    probably (definitely?) missing out that way… but i’ll be happier to shake an addiction…

    Comment by Ally
    15.
    January 4, 2010
    3:04 pm

    Swench – you forgot about Man U winning the FA Cup….oh drat

    As for the Choice Music Prize, that particular bunfight kicks off on Wednesday January 13, The fun! The games! The outraged fuming and indignation (Indigestion?) from the moral high ground! And this year, I can promise that it will be all of the above TO THE POWER OF A BILLION!

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    16.
    January 4, 2010
    3:05 pm

    “carnie – mike slott’s mini-album is delicioius. What I’m waiting to see if which one of those producers will land a mainstream album gig and then if there will be rush for that sound. As things stand, there was a ton of really swell releases in that hip-hop/electronica field last year – Dam-Funk, Dorian Concept, HudMo, that awesome All City compilation etc – so hopefully more of that kind of thing in ‘10.”

    What i’d say will happen is that one of the above producers will do a track or two for a big time artist like jay-z, kanye etc etc and that will get him noticed amongst the masses. Once again I’m looking at hud mo. He does have the more commerical sounding music.

    Must get that mike slott album thingy. Is it out properly or did you just get a promo?

    Comment by carnie
    17.
    January 4, 2010
    3:07 pm

    carnie – you can get it at http://www.emusic.com/album/Mike-Slott-Lucky-9teen-MP3-Download/11715725.html and it’s also on Spotify for those who’re hooked up there (especially as the freebie Spotify seems to be back in action for Irish users).

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    18.
    January 4, 2010
    3:11 pm

    So, I take it that U2 will get the Choice nod?

    I can think of three frontrunners, but don’t want to jinx ‘em as we haven’t seen the nominations yet.

    Comment by Eamon Sweeney
    19.
    January 4, 2010
    3:16 pm

    El Swencho – let’s leave all the Choice speculation until next week, shall we? BTW do you have a number for Principle Management?

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    20.
    January 4, 2010
    3:35 pm

    I believe Derek Nally is the man to talk to in terms of U2 playing live at the Choice Awards.

    Comment by Eamon Sweeney
    21.
    January 4, 2010
    4:36 pm

    I think you’ll find Derek’ll be busy winning Big Brother this year Swench. That said, I’m sure he’ll find time to give Jim a bell..

    Comment by John Hennessy
    22.
    January 4, 2010
    4:42 pm

    Woop! Can’t wait for U2 at Choice!

    But away from hellish thoughts…a few groups that I think we may be hearing about more this year will be Freelance Whales and Marylanders Beach House. Am hoping other Maryland groups Wye Oak and Bellflur get some more exposure as well.

    In terms of artists that have already been around here last year I think Local Natives, Peter Broderick and The Antlers will be making a bigger splash than they have already made.

    As to The Do- one of my Norwegian friends has had some contact with them and they are concentrating on touring- hopefully here in 2010! Some new tunes from them would be great though- as much as I like ‘Stay’ the O2 turtle ad is starting to wear the tune out.

    Comment by Tim
    23.
    January 4, 2010
    4:52 pm

    Tim – go Maryland!

    On the subject of The Do, someone pointed out to me (thanks Joe!), that their album only got a UK release in 2009 – it was one of the Beeb’s albums that got away in 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/8426925.stm – so maybe I am being characteristically presumptuous in assumed they hadn’t done anything in ‘09, I saw them at Eurosonic in 2008 and they were truly awesome. And that tune “On My Shoulders” is a classic.

    All of which also means another caveat for tipping – your tip may take some time to come good (see what I had to say about Lisa Hannigan above)

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    24.
    January 4, 2010
    4:54 pm

    “how about which acts from 2010 will still be making music in 2020?”

    Well if Spielberg is right we’ll all be listening to Huey Lewis.

    Comment by Peter81
    25.
    January 4, 2010
    5:46 pm

    I just caught sight of “tipp” on my browser before seeing the full title of the post. Is there some subliminal hurling prediction going on?

    Comment by paub
    26.
    January 4, 2010
    6:22 pm

    Jim,

    Happy new year !

    Any rumours of a Dublin gig for Vampire Weekend in February – they seem to be everywhere other than our fair city. Nothing announced yet through the usual channels either(myspace page & mcd).

    Comment by Fearghal
    27.
    January 5, 2010
    1:46 pm

    carnie, hudson mo’s track fuse was meant to be used by rihanna but that didn’t happen but there is still talks of a collaboration between them…there is talks of him doing something with erykah badu as well…

    Comment by peter
    28.
    January 5, 2010
    2:49 pm

    Ellie Goulding is supporting Passion Pit on the 13th March in Dublin apparently.

    The Middle East sound pretty good

    Comment by The G-Man
    29.
    January 5, 2010
    3:00 pm

    I’ve being hammering Kleerup over the Christmas period. A friend put it in my ipod. Some outstanding tracks.

    Comment by nerraw
    30.
    January 5, 2010
    4:45 pm

    paub – my one hurling tip for ‘10 is that Kilkenny will be beaten and chances are they might well be beaten before the first Sunday in September

    fearghal – have heard zilch about this yet

    peter – new erykah badu album due soon too

    G-Man – the more I hear from the Middle East, the more I like them

    nerraw – it’s a fantastic album, isn’t it? Dude’s one to watch for sure.

    Comment by Jim Carroll
    31.
    January 6, 2010
    1:04 am

    2011 will be Planet Parade’s year..

    Comment by Gouj
    32.
    January 6, 2010
    1:46 pm

    That chap from The Bug’s ‘King Midas Sound’ project or guise will make waves in 2010. The ‘Maxinquaye’ of dubstep or some such pithy analogy…

    Judging by the awesomenessness of his Splendour EP, Pantha Du Prince will be untz, untz, untzing his way into hearts and bodies across dancefloors and bedrooms of Europe.

    Oneohtrix Point Never-lovin’ your work, fella.

    Comment by Robert Mitchum
    33.
    January 7, 2010
    3:44 am

    Erm, whilst I agree with almost everything previously written, well my 5 cents may as well go in the ring too:
    In no particular order here are 10 for 2010.

    65Daysofstatic
    Edward sharpe and the magnetic zero’s
    These new puritans (again)
    Beach House
    Fight like apes
    Maybeshewill
    Crystal stilts
    Soap and skin
    The penny black remedy
    Codes in clouds

    Fingers and all else crossed.
    I would be most pleased to see 65dos and Maybeshewill do some serious business, and fightlikeapes are savage.

    Comment by 127.0.0.1

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