A second round of negotiations between the US and Iran, due to begin in Islamabad on Monday, are in doubt after the US said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to bypass its blockade.
Iran threatened to retaliate and said its attendance at the talks was in doubt. The US team was on the way to Pakistan when Iran cast doubt over the discussions. The ceasefire is due to expire on Wednesday.
Ahead of the talks US president Donald Trump had stepped up pressure on Iran by blockading Iranian harbours and coastal areas in the Gulf and preventing two dozen Iranian ships from sailing. This came in response to the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.
Tensions increased on Sunday after a US navy destroyer deployed in the Arabian Sea repeatedly warned an Iranian-flagged cargo ship apparently trying to breach its blockade. It fired on the ship’s engine room and landed helicopter-borne marines who seized the vessel. Iran said it would retaliate.
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Iran has realised Hormuz is a potent weapon in negotiations. More than 20 per cent of the world’s oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertiliser is exported through Hormuz, which also handles Iran’s imports and domestic exports.
It initially closed the strait on March 4th in retaliation for US-Israeli air strikes which killed its supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other senior figures. Tehran opened the strait on Friday before reimposing strict restrictions after the US refused to end its own blockade.
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Iran’s military command said it has placed Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman, “under strict management and control by [its] armed forces”. It said restrictions on ships transiting the strait would continue if the US did not “ensure full freedom of navigation for vessels travelling from Iran to destinations and from destinations to Iran”.
Iran has refused to give into what it has called “maximalist” US demands. The issues under discussion during the first round of talks included Iran’s nuclear programme.
In particular, there was a focus on the transfer of Iran’s 440kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium to Pakistan; a suspension of Iranian uranium enrichment for between five and 20 years; new arrangements for shipping through Hormuz; partial disarmament of Iran-allied militias in Iraq and Lebanon; the lifting sanctions on Iran, and the return of $100-120 billion in Iranian assets frozen in western banks.
While Trump declared agreement is close without giving particulars, Tehran said wide differences between the sides must be settled before a framework can be agreed.
Experts have estimated a peace deal could require at least 60 days of negotiations.
Trump said on Friday his naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue until a deal was reached. However, analysts argue Iran does not readily capitulate to pressure and could, instead, toughen its stance by asserting its “sovereign right” to control Hormuz.
