Before the start of the Iran war at the end of February, all eyes in the Middle East were focused on Gaza: US president Donald Trump had just unveiled his “Board of Peace”, the Rafah crossing was reopened and stage two of the ceasefire was about to begin.
The Iran war has put Gaza reconstruction on hold. The Palestinian committee of technocrats has not fully deployed, Hamas is still effectively in control and there is no sign of the international stabilisation force.
Exchanges of fire between Israeli troops and Palestinian militants are almost a daily occurrence along the yellow line, which divides the enclave in two.
The Israeli military closed the Gaza crossings at the start of the Iran war, citing security concerns. Food shortages caused panic buying and a sharp increase in prices.
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Israel has since reopened one crossing with new security requirements for about 200 lorries a day, but aid organisations warn this is not enough.
Meanwhile, Israeli leaders are warning of dire consequences after the war if Hamas does not disarm.
“You see what is happening in Iran,” defence minister Yisrael Katz said in a television interview, pledging to renew attacks against Hamas again if it refuses to lay down its arms. “We will not abandon [Gaza], that is where it all began ... There will be no Hamas there to pose a threat.”
The so-called Board of Peace has reportedly issued tenders for refugee villages in Gaza, a base for international troops expected to serve there, and a management headquarters in Israel. But the main reconstruction effort will have to wait until after the war.
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The war has created a big dilemma for Hamas and the smaller Islamic Jihad, particular bearing in mind Iran has attacked Qatar with rockets and drones on numerous occasions.
Iran is believed to supply weapons, training, technical expertise and financial support to the militant groups through a complex system of regional networks and covert mechanisms.
Qatar has provided some €1.5 billion to Hamas-run Gaza since 2012, including hundreds of millions annually for government salaries, fuel and assistance to low-income families. Doha also hosts the Hamas leadership- in-exile.
Hamas cannot afford to lose the support of either country and is choosing to not publicly comment on the war, maintaining a neutral stance.
Regime change in Iran or an enfeebled, war-battered Islamic republic could have catastrophic consequences for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad; it would likely mean an immediate end to funding and military support. Meanwhile, there are already voices within Hamas suggesting pivoting to the Muslim Brotherhood-Sunni axis may be an appropriate response to the war, strengthening ties with Turkey in place of Iran.
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