Middle EastAnalysis

Israel’s Lebanon offensive against Hizbullah leaves Iran in difficult situation

Firing Iranian ballistic missiles at Israel risks massive Israeli-US retaliation against Iran’s infrastructure

Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian speaks at the Summit of the Future on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly at United Nations headquarters in New York on Monday. Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP via Getty Images
Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian speaks at the Summit of the Future on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly at United Nations headquarters in New York on Monday. Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP via Getty Images
Michael Jansen's picture
Michael Jansen
Tue Sept 24 2024 - 14:46

Iran faces a difficult and delicate situation after Israel followed up its military offensive in Gaza with an attack on Lebanon.

Iran is in no position to defend its Lebanese ally Hizbullah, which has been under Israeli attack for a more than a week. Firing Iranian ballistic missiles at Israel could risk massive Israeli-US retaliation against Iran’s infrastructure and wreck the country’s troubled economy.

For 11 months Iran has been powerless to aid Hamas in Gaza as Israel responded to the October 7th attacks with an offensive that has killed more than 40,000 people and devastated the Strip. Both Hizbullah and Hamas are members of the Iran-led axis of resistance to Israel’s occupation of Palestine and its regional military domination. In response to the Gaza war, another axis member, Yemen’s Houthis, have disrupted Red Sea shipping by firing missiles at vessels. Iraq’s Shia militias, who are also aligned with Iran, have fired at US military bases in Iraq and Syria.

Following Israel’s strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1st which killed 16 people, including a Revolutionary Guards commander, Iran fired missiles at Israel. Most were shot down by Israel, the US and allies.

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Iran has yet to retaliate for Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31st while he attended the inauguration in Tehran of Iran’s new reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian.

On Monday, while in New York for the UN General Assembly, Pezeshkian accused Israel of seeking a wider conflict. Alluding to the Haniyeh assassination, he said the western powers had urged Iran not to retaliate as this could harm negotiations for an end to the Gaza war. “But we never reached that elusive peace. Every day Israel is committing more atrocities and killing more people, old, young, men, women, children.” He said Hizbullah has been firing missiles into Israel to exert pressure to stop the Gaza war.

Pezeshkian fears Israel’s assault on Lebanon could jeopardise his efforts to cultivate relations with regional and western countries. He is also trying to revive the 2015 agreement in which Iran limited its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of the economic sanctions crippling Iran’s economy.

Criticised by domestic hardliners who argue Tehran will project weakness and lose deterrence if it fails to retaliate militarily against Israel for targeting Hizbullah, Pezeshkian and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi have mounted a diplomatic offensive.

They have told international counterparts that Israel must be held accountable for breaching Lebanese sovereignty and targeting Lebanese civilians. Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and Venezuela have also condemned Israel.

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has called for an “immediate ceasefire” and warned of regional spillover.

The US, the sole country with leverage on Israel, has given it time to attain its objectives by saying Washington will present “concrete proposals” this week to world leaders attending the United Nations General Assembly.