Even as Moscow’s forces pummel Ukraine’s power grid ahead of winter, Kyiv’s expanding drone and missile arsenal is inflicting almost daily damage on Russian oil facilities that are crucial to the Kremlin’s finances and military operations.
At least 16 of Russia’s 38 oil refineries, which turn crude into petrol and diesel and other products, have been struck this year in a fiery campaign that Ukraine euphemistically calls “kinetic”, “direct” or “long-range” sanctions on its enemy’s vast energy sector.
Ukraine hopes the attacks will be more effective than the partial and patchy economic sanctions imposed by the West since Moscow launched its all-out invasion in February 2022, and they are already having an impact on ordinary Russians.
Industry analysts say Russia – the world’s third-biggest oil producer - is now refining just under five million barrels of oil per day, well down on its capacity of about 6.5 million, due to Ukraine’s intensifying attacks on some of its biggest facilities.
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In late September the Russian government extended a ban on petrol exports until the end of the year and imposed a partial ban on exports of diesel and other fuels, as shortages were reported at filling stations as far apart as the Pacific far east, the Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad and the occupied Black Sea region of Crimea.
Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, has been particularly hard hit, forcing Kremlin-installed officials on the peninsula to restrict motorists to buying 30 litres of petrol at a time and to freeze pump prices following sharp increases.
Russia has classified its official data on energy production, but even pro-Kremlin media have registered the disruption, showing long queues at filling stations in several regions and reporting in late September that about half the stations in Crimea had stopped selling petrol altogether due to supply shortages.
Independent stations, not affiliated to Russia’s huge energy firms, have been hardest hit, as wholesale petrol prices have risen about 40 per cent this year and financial support is hard to access with interest rates at 17 per cent – a result of central bank efforts to curb spiralling inflation stoked by the state’s massive military spending.
The damage inflicted on Russia’s refineries is also showing up in its oil export data, as producers seek foreign buyers for crude that cannot be turned into higher-value products at home due to reduced capacity.
Reuters reported that oil exports through ports in western Russia were 25 per cent higher in September than August, and that state-controlled pipeline firm Transneft had warned producers that they might have to cut production, amid growing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, ports and other infrastructure. Transneft dismissed the news as “fake”.
The energy sector accounts for about a fifth of Russia’s gross domestic product, and it has kept wartime income flowing around western sanctions by diverting a large portion of exports – often at a deep discount - to China, India and other countries and by creating a “shadow fleet” of ageing oil tankers that fly flags of convenience, change their names frequently and sail with their transponders off to thwart tracking.
Kyiv’s frustration at the West’s failure to close sanctions loopholes, ban the shadow fleet and halt all purchases of Russian energy has motivated its campaign to strike directly at its enemy’s refineries, pipelines and exports terminals, some of which sit well over 1,000km from the Ukrainian border.
“The task now is to be significantly more active in everything related to the preparation and execution of ‘long-range sanctions’ against Russia,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday. The more effective Ukraine is in long-range capabilities, the sooner we will be able to achieve peace,” .
“The quality of Ukrainian long-range weapons is becoming substantially higher,” he added. “Ukrainian precision is already evident, it needs to increase further. This is absolutely fair, that Ukraine strikes back with precise, targeted attacks.”
Kyiv says it is using domestically made missiles and drones in its “deep strike’ campaign against industrial facilities that serve Russia’s invasion.
“The capabilities of the enemy’s military-industrial complex have been significantly reduced - we can see this on the battlefield,” Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in late September, claiming that over the previous two months Ukraine had hit 33 military sites and 52 military-industrial facilities in Russia.
At the same time, Russia is ramping up attacks on Ukraine’s power grid as winter looms – an attack involving 32 missiles and 465 drones caused power cuts in Kyiv and nine regions on Friday, Ukrainian officials said.
Russia insists that what it calls “unscheduled refinery shutdowns” will not derail its “special military operation” in Ukraine, and analysts say its vast, mostly Soviet-era energy infrastructure is nowhere near being brought to its knees.
“Russia’s oil refineries are facing a lot of problems - but things are far from catastrophic,” writes Russian energy expert Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, comparing them to “a man who is being repeatedly punched.”
“He will not die from one punch, or even half a dozen punches. But it becomes harder and harder for him to recover after each subsequent blow,” he explains. “Although no single punch is fatal, he could end up being beaten to death.”
