Tuesday’s air strikes in Yemen mark a sharp escalation of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Tensions between the two Gulf states is good news for the Houthis and a worry for both Washington and Beijing.
When Saudis and Emiratis fall out
Saudi Arabian air strikes in the southern Yemeni port of Mukalla on Tuesday morning targeted weapons supplied by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to local separatist forces. The UAE announced afterwards that it was withdrawing its military personnel from Yemen, citing the potential implications for their safety of “recent developments”.
Tuesday’s action marks a sharp escalation in tensions between the Gulf Arab states, which fought alongside one another in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis from 2015. But the UAE took its forces out of that fight in 2019 and has focused its efforts instead on cultivating proxies in key, strategic parts of the country.
Tuesday’s strikes followed the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) taking control of the governorates of Hadhramout and al-Mahrah, close to the border with Saudi Arabia. The territory is sparsely populated and mostly desert but it is home to much of Yemen’s oil and gas deposits.
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Like the Saudis and the UAE, the STC supports the internationally recognised government of Yemen against the Houthis but it wants to establish an independent state in South Yemen. Riyadh views any military action by the separatists so close to its border as a threat to its own security.
“In this context, the kingdom stresses that any threat to its national security is a red line, and the kingdom will not hesitate to take all necessary steps and measures to confront and neutralise any such threat,” it said.
The immediate beneficiaries of the trouble between the Saudis and the UAE are the Houthis, who control much of northern and western Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. But the Saudi military action also sends a message to the Emiratis that their strategy of using proxies in regional conflicts may have its limits.
Determined to diversify its economy beyond oil production, the UAE has used its sovereign funds to diversify into foreign markets, notably in critical mineral resources, infrastructure, logistics and food security in Africa. It also wants to become a technology innovation hub, including in defence and aerospace, and it has become a significant exporter of drones.
With only a million citizens, the UAE cannot become a conventional military power but it is using its financial strength to fund mercenaries and rebel groups across Africa and the Red Sea, often covertly or with plausible deniability. It is the most important backer of the Rapid Support Forces, which has been accused of genocide in Sudan and carried out a massacre in el-Fasher last October, killing tens of thousands.
The escalation of the rivalry between the Saudis and Emiratis will worry Washington, where both countries are viewed as essential to securing American interests in the region. It is unwelcome news too for Beijing, which enjoys good relations with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE and has growing investments in each.
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