Nate Silver

30 results

Democratic US presidential candidate Joe Biden during the final presidential debate  in Nashville, Tennessee, last Thursday. Photograph Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Joe Biden has been well ahead of Donald Trump in the polls for some time. Does that mean a blue wave is already priced in? Maybe not. Betting markets(...)

The re-election of US president Donald Trump looks increasingly unlikely – the probability of a Joe Biden victory is now 87 per cent, according to polling expert Nate Silver. Photograph: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

The polls have been pointing to a Joe Biden presidency for some time and betting markets have lately started coming to the same conclusion. With US st(...)

Odds of a constitutional crisis are hard to estimate, but they appear very real, given Donald Trump’s alarming refusal last week to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. Photograph: Mandel Ngan, Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

The recent market jitters may not die down any time soon, given that the US presidential election – an obvious source of potential market angst – is n(...)

Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally in the Tacoma Dome in Tacoma, Washington, US. Photograph: Jason Redmond/Reuters

The odds of self-described socialist Bernie Sanders becoming America’s next president have shortened dramatically, but there’s little chatter about hi(...)

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren  visits Fairfield, Iowa, US. Photograph: Rachel Mummey/Reuters

Last summer, New York magazine put a bounding Elizabeth Warren on its cover, along with the headline “Front Runner?” Even allowing for the crafty hedg(...)

US president Donald Trump: he  has threatened to shut down the government if his funding demands for the US-Mexico wall are not met. Photograph: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

US stock markets have been shaky lately. In fact, they’ve been shaky since peaking 11 weeks ago. Are we any closer to a bottom? Bears might see such (...)

Donald Trump: some pundits who predicted a Trump victory have been lauded as Nostradamus-like visionaries, even if their predictions were only half-right. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

If you have to forecast, American economist Edgar Fiedler once quipped, forecast often. If you get a big call right, it will never be forgotten. And i(...)

Polling expert Nate Silver said apparent e-voting disparities  disappeared after race and education levels, which most closely tracked voting shifts nationwide, were controlled for. Photograph: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

A growing number of academics and activists are calling for US authorities to fully audit or recount the 2016 presidential election vote in key battle(...)

As markets rallied following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, Wall Street changed its previously bearish tune. Photograph: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg

What will the US presidency of Donald Trump mean for stock markets? An honest observer would note the unpredictability of recent events and admit: I (...)

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks during a rally at the Sioux City Convention Center in Sioux City, Iowa on November 6, 2016. Donald Trump barnstorms five states Sunday while Hillary Clinton implores her most fervent supporters to get to the polls, in a frenetic final 48-hour dash to the US presidential election. / AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGANMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

Not many people – this columnist included – believed Donald Trump’s assertion that stocks would “go great” if he was elected president. But go great (...)

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