James Montier

31 results

Traders at the New York Stock Exchange. Two-thirds of investors surveyed in the wake of the global financial crisis believed the S&P 500 fell in 2009; in reality, it soared 26 per cent. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

A simple question to start: in the last 20 years, the proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty has: (a) almost doubled; (b) re(...)

President Donald Trump and vice-president Mike Pence examine an iconic Yellow Iron from Caterpillar. There has been much focus on the warning from Caterpillar’s chief executive  that the first quarter of 2018 might prove to be a “high watermark” for the company. Photograph:  Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images

Corporate America has just enjoyed a bumper earnings season. Profits have risen by a quarter over the last year, underpinned by record high-profit mar(...)

More than half of respondents believed bitcoin was in a bubble when it was trading at $2,200. A few months later, bitcoin had more than doubled and was trading at $5,300, but fewer people now believed they were witnessing a bubble. Photograph: Sascha  Steinbach/EPA

As US markets raced higher in January, ordinary investors were going gaga for stocks. There were four times as many bulls as bears, according to an Am(...)

 “The central truth of the investment business is that investment behaviour is driven by career risk,”  GMO founder Jeremy Grantham opined in a famous 2012 note. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Prior to the recent market correction, Merrill Lynch surveys showed a record number of fund managers believed stocks were overvalued but a record numb(...)

Amid the ongoing agonising about US inflation and the interest rate outlook,  stocks are enjoying a very fine earnings season. Photograph: Getty Images

The herd instinct is alive and well, judging by the latest Merrill Lynch monthly fund manager survey. In recent months, the percentage of fund manager(...)

“Even if you had a crystal ball and knew exactly how the global economy would perform in 2018, you still could not be sure how this would impact on stock markets.”

For what it’s worth, Wall Street strategists predict the S&P 500 will advance at a more modest pace this year, rising about 7 per cent in 2018 com(...)

“Many people in the financial services industry who claim to be in the business of providing advice are in fact in the business of making sales.” File photograph: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images

Stock markets have been strangely calm in 2017, but this quiet won’t last forever – it never does. What will you do when markets eventually head south(...)

 The belief that bear markets favour active management is erroneous, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The reputation of active fund managers has been battered since the bull market began in 2009, with years of underperformance prompting ordinary invest(...)

Goldman Sachs recently cautioned that 10-year returns have been negative or below historical norms 99% of the time when valuations were as high as they are today. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

A record number of fund managers believe global equities to be overvalued, with an overwhelming majority seeing the US market as the most overvalued i(...)

Netflix, Amazon, Exxon Mobil and Goldman Sachs, among other high-profile stocks, have suffered double-digit drops lately

Stock markets may be not too far away from all-time highs, but some high-profile stocks –Amazon, Netflix, Exxon Mobil and Goldman Sachs, among others (...)

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