James Montier

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Five technology companies – Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google) and Facebook – account for almost a quarter of the S&P 500’s total market capitalisation. Photograph: Lionel Bonaventure/AFP via Getty

One strategist who clearly doesn’t think stocks should be at all-time highs right now is GMO’s James Montier, as evidenced by the title of his latest (...)

A member of security wearing a protective mask stands in front of an electronic board displaying stock prices at the lobby of the Indonesia Stock Exchange  in Jakarta, Indonesia. Photograph: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg

Global stocks are in bear market territory but some regions remain much cheaper than others. If you’re a value investor with a long-term outlook, you(...)

Managers will be in a hot state when volatility erupts. Fear causes them to hedge reactively and to overtrade, not appreciating just how much their hot emotional state is impacting their decisions.  Photograph: Getty Images

Imagine the following scenario. Stocks are plunging around the world and your portfolio has been badly bloodied, losing 30 per cent of its value. Will(...)

Traders at the New York Stock Exchange. Two-thirds of investors surveyed in the wake of the global financial crisis believed the S&P 500 fell in 2009; in reality, it soared 26 per cent. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

A simple question to start: in the last 20 years, the proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty has: (a) almost doubled; (b) re(...)

President Donald Trump and vice-president Mike Pence examine an iconic Yellow Iron from Caterpillar. There has been much focus on the warning from Caterpillar’s chief executive  that the first quarter of 2018 might prove to be a “high watermark” for the company. Photograph:  Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images

Corporate America has just enjoyed a bumper earnings season. Profits have risen by a quarter over the last year, underpinned by record high-profit mar(...)

More than half of respondents believed bitcoin was in a bubble when it was trading at $2,200. A few months later, bitcoin had more than doubled and was trading at $5,300, but fewer people now believed they were witnessing a bubble. Photograph: Sascha  Steinbach/EPA

As US markets raced higher in January, ordinary investors were going gaga for stocks. There were four times as many bulls as bears, according to an Am(...)

 “The central truth of the investment business is that investment behaviour is driven by career risk,”  GMO founder Jeremy Grantham opined in a famous 2012 note. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Prior to the recent market correction, Merrill Lynch surveys showed a record number of fund managers believed stocks were overvalued but a record numb(...)

Amid the ongoing agonising about US inflation and the interest rate outlook,  stocks are enjoying a very fine earnings season. Photograph: Getty Images

The herd instinct is alive and well, judging by the latest Merrill Lynch monthly fund manager survey. In recent months, the percentage of fund manager(...)

“Even if you had a crystal ball and knew exactly how the global economy would perform in 2018, you still could not be sure how this would impact on stock markets.”

For what it’s worth, Wall Street strategists predict the S&P 500 will advance at a more modest pace this year, rising about 7 per cent in 2018 com(...)

“Many people in the financial services industry who claim to be in the business of providing advice are in fact in the business of making sales.” File photograph: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images

Stock markets have been strangely calm in 2017, but this quiet won’t last forever – it never does. What will you do when markets eventually head south(...)

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