A paper from the San Francisco Fed last year found that yield curve inversions are the most reliable predictor of recession risk. Photograph: iStock

US stocks are near all-time highs after enjoying a very strong start to 2019 but worries regarding a looming recession continue to linger. The chief c(...)

Diversification reduces risk of long-term disappointment, but avoiding short-term pain is another matter entirely. Photograph: iStock

Diversification is often referred to as the only free lunch in finance but it didn’t protect investors from a shellacking in 2018, with almost all maj(...)

The Fearless Girl and  Charging Bull statues on Wall Street in New York. Photograph: William Volcov/Getty Images

The S&P 500 fell almost 10 per cent in December alone, its worst close to a year since 1931 and its worst monthly performance since the global fin(...)

Corrections are par for the course in bull markets, but investors are understandably spooked by the scale of the selling. The S&P 500 went 28 consecutive days without registering back-to-back gains. Photograph: Getty Images

Well, that was ugly. October, that is. The S&P 500’s 6.9 per cent fall was its biggest monthly decline in seven years, while things were even more(...)

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Photograph: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The Tina trade – the idea that there is no alternative to stocks in a low-yielding world – has helped support the US bull market over the last nine ye(...)

September 10th, 2008. If a survey by robo-advisory firm Betterment survey is a guide, most people in Ireland have little idea the last decade was a good time to be invested in stocks. Photograph: Jeremy Bales/Bloomberg News

It’s been a miserable year for emerging markets, which fell into a bear market last month, but a turning point may be at hand for a region that looks (...)

“Investing is simple”, as Warren Buffett once quipped, “but not easy”. Photograph: iStock

Stocks have more than quadrupled since the nadir of the global financial crisis in March 2009, but things will be tricker going forward. After all, th(...)

The current bull market could run for another two and a half years, according to JP Morgan. Photograph: Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images

The US bull market that began in March 2009 last week became the longest in history. Does it matter? Is age irrelevant? Or should investors be concern(...)

Bill Miller. Had he retired in 2006, everyone “would have thought I was a genius”, he said last year. “By 2009, I was like an idiot.” Photograph: Heidi Gutman/Getty Images

One of the most important determinants of investment success is also one of the most underappreciated – luck. The investors who enjoy the cosiest ret(...)

Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon argue that quarterly earnings guidance “often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits”. Photograph: Donald Bowers/Getty Images

Financial markets have become too focused on the short term, according to celebrated investor Warren Buffett and JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimo(...)

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