Who can close gap on Kilkenny?

Overview: Kilkenny's high-wire National League win over Tipperary illustrated a changing trend in hurling. As the Guinness hurling championship its its stride this week the clear favourites are the league finalists Kilkenny and Tipperary who were also clearly the best teams throughout the campaign.

It's not long since a league victory not alone appeared to spell the end of a team's championship prospects but six times in eight years (1993-2000) it proved insufficient to save a succession of managers from losing their positions.

For the past two years Kilkenny and Tipperary have won the double, following up impressive league campaigns with championship success. Now one or the other is short-odds to do it again. The big fear in hurling is that this trend demonstrates a disturbing lack of competition in what is already a fairly limited field.

There is one point to be made in mitigation of that bleak view. In each of the past three leagues Kilkenny or Tipperary or both have had pressing needs in terms of team development and so were anxious to make the most of the campaigns. Settled teams don't feel the same imperative and it's unusual to have elite contenders engaged in the type of constant renewal that has characterised the two leading counties in recent times.

But in broad terms the charge is valid. There is a troubling lack of competition in the championship. For a number of years anyone with eyes to see has noticed that Leinster is in crisis. From a high point six years ago when both the Leinster semi-finals and final attracted record crowds to Croke Park the provincial championship has all but disintegrated.

Should Kilkenny manage to retain their provincial title - and they are six to one on to do so - it will constitute a new record. For all the county's domination of hurling over the past century its hurlers have never previously won six successive Leinster championships.

Aside from the obviously unsatisfactory aspects of that monopoly there is the point that Kilkenny are in a better position to incorporate league success into their schedule. This year, for instance, the champions' first match is on June 8th.

This is a leisurely enough timetable compared to Tipperary whose campaign starts tomorrow against Clare and should they win will continue in a semi-final with Cork the same day as Kilkenny take on the survivors of the Leinster preliminary rounds.

Offaly are engaged in radical team rebuilding but in recent years have relinquished any lingering reputation for putting it up to Kilkenny and in Michael McNamara's first year in charge it's hard to see the traditional threat being revived in the time available.

Wexford carry most people's hopes - however tenuous - of a provincial challenge to Kilkenny. They only lost by two points in last year's final and drew a thunderous league encounter last month in Nowlan Park. But not even the most fervent Wexford supporter could say that the champions were at full tilt in that match last July. DJ Carey, for instance, didn't remove his tracksuit until the bar was set for Tipperary in the semi-finals.

Wexford's public display of petulance over their qualifier match being set for a week after they had lost to Kilkenny did little to assist in the preparation for the match against Clare. Otherwise they might have built on a promising display.

It's interesting to note that this year the same provision will apply with the third qualifier round coming six days after the Leinster final. Presumably if the need arises John Conran will be careful not to hand such a psychological edge to his team's opponents.

Tipperary will have a much harder task if they are to justify their odds in Munster. The perennial joust with Clare in Cork has assumed the status of what Hollywood script pitchers might term Groundhog Day meets War and Peace. In each of the past two years Clare have given a good account of themselves but the dependence on the defence is still unvaried with forwards untested or struggling for form.

Although they have been losing players at an alarming rate Tipp will start favourites but the prospective Cork semi-final looks tricky. Matches between Munster's Old Firm can be unpredictable anyway and already Cork seized a satisfying win in the league in Thurles.

Another in the unpredictable category is the meeting of Limerick and Waterford. Both are meeting after league campaigns that gravely disturbed the buoyancy originally evident in each county. Dave Keane's under-21 achievements brought the pressure of soaring expectations and the risky inclination to graduate too many young players too quickly.

Technically Waterford are no worse off than this time last year given that Justin McCarthy is clearly a championship manager but there has been a disappointing failure to date to build on the status of last year's Munster success, since when the only win of consequence has been the first defeat of Clare in 11 years. Either can make the Munster final but the momentum looks on the other side of the draw.

Galway, as usual, is a case of hitting the "get" button: wide range of players, difficulty of forging 15 of them into a team etc. It should be said that the county complicates this task by changing the manager on a continual basis. Conor Hayes knows what he's doing but it's his first year and precedent underlines the difficulty of taking your time to get it right.

It's early to be too gloomy. After all, 12 months ago who would have foreseen Waterford's technicolour moment or Clare's dogged assault on the All-Ireland? Situations change according to circumstances. Tipperary's weakened hand comes very late in the day for considered repair, which leaves the reigning champions out on their own.

Kilkenny's success two weeks ago didn't obscure the ongoing problem in the half forwards or the fact that they have occasionally displayed the softness of defending champions but the gap between them and the rest might be resistant even to such difficulties.