Welsh may end up waving white flag

On the streets of Cardiff, as the countdown to the Six Nations Championship quickened yesterday, the search for omens should have been in full cry. Remember Wembley, boyos? Hey, Jonesy, the same French bloke was refereeing last time we beat England here.

Instead, knots of anxious-looking men stood around the relaid Millennium stadium pitch wincing periodically, not least the Wales coach Graham Henry who declined to make any eve-of-game comments on the grounds he was suffering from toothache.

Toothache? As a metaphor for Welsh rugby's present mood it is as good as any. A couple of weeks ago, all anyone peering over the Severn Bridge could see were gleaming sets of white enamel and thousands of scarlet lips curled in anticipation.

But, for a variety of reasons, notably last weekend's Heineken Cup capitulations by Cardiff and Swansea, the smiles have gone. Exaggerated Welsh pessimism, of course, is the first cousin of the inflated expectations Henry spends the rest of his time trying to dampen, but if the body language of the respective management teams is anything to go by, Wales are in real peril.

Over at the England team hotel in Cardiff Bay, Clive Woodward could scarcely stop talking and the foyer was practically awash with positive vibes, although the atmosphere would have turned frosty had the Australia Rugby Union's chief executive John O'Neill strolled into reception.

Timing is everything in the wide world of sports diplomacy and O'Neill has made few new friends in these parts with his overnight suggestion that England and France should abandon the Six Nations and jump into bed annually with their pushy friends from the Tri-Nations.

The best retort would have been to ask O'Neill to jump on a plane and, upon arrival, try and find a ticket for the opening game of a event he seems to feel is in terminal decline.

To its many fans, the Six Nations remains a compulsive mix of history and current affairs, and Woodward's response - "I can't for one moment believe anyone in the northern hemisphere would allow anything to get in the way of this tournament" - will strike a guaranteed chord in Rome, Edinburgh and beyond.

In Wales, though, today's priority is to heed the lessons of last year's 46-12 defeat at Twickenham, not dwell on Scott Gibbs' Wembley miracle in 1999. Last March, the Welsh trailed just 1912 at half-time, but, like out-of-condition boxers, had already taken way too much punishment.

This time, the second-half incisions could be worse, for England have picked a back line apparently modelled on the Red Arrows display team, each capable of breathtaking solo manoeuvres or tight formation work.

There is no shortage of desire, either. "If I was given the choice of Australia at Twickenham or Wales in Cardiff, I'd choose to beat Wales down here," insisted Woodward. "I can't even conceive losing tomorrow."

The bookmakers, taking due note, have given the Welsh a 13point start, undeterred by the presence of Neil Jenkins, who is four short of becoming the first man to 1,000 international points.

Gibbs will also be winning his 50th cap, but it will be the stats relating to possession and penalties which will settle Wales' fate today. If England are the side they aspire to be, despite the hostile venue, they should win by 10 clear points. Anything heavier and Henry will run the risk of major earache as well.