Understrength champions still look much too strong

Last year at Croke Park when Meath faced Offaly in the Bank of Ireland Leinster semi-final, the match stayed on the edge until Ollie Murphy's goal in the 48th minute.

This was a driven Offaly team with the confidence of having toppled champions Kildare in the previous round.

They believed that they were as good as Meath and hadn't done themselves justice a year before when, glowing with the success of a league title, they were sucked into the trenches and finally overrun.

The sense of last year's meeting between the counties is one of great conflict until Meath could no longer be contained. By contrast, the sense of tomorrow's match between the counties is one of immutable hierarchy - Meath the All-Ireland champions and Offaly the faltering challengers.

Both teams have taken knocks in the lead-in to this match. Meath have lost Graham Geraghty and two thirds of their half back line whereas Offaly are short Ciaran McManus, John Ryan and John Kenny. The All-Ireland champions have, however, deeper reserves and will not suffer as badly as their opponents.

This is the fifth meeting of the counties in six years. On the occasions when Offaly have done better, they have had momentum. On the occasion when they did best, 1997, that momentum was hidden. In the last two years, Meath have had them in their sights and the contest hasn't run the full 70 minutes.

The mixed news about Offaly this year is that, whereas their momentum is indeed hidden, it may not be there at all. A conscientious league campaign saw all Division Two matches up to the final against Louth won, but rarely with rip-roaring performances and certainly with no sense of an ever-developing threat.

Meath have had to make their own alterations, but the essence of the team looks intact. Geraghty's pace and agility will be missed in the full forward line, but Ronan Fitzsimons has earned his call-up even if he represents a gamble at full forward and even if his performance is likely to hinge on a good start.

Beside him is Ollie Murphy, who has developed into one of the game's best finishers and Barry Callaghan, who is a fine footballer when he manages to stay clear of injury for a couple of matches.

Elsewhere in attack Evan Kelly is in good form and Trevor Giles is still calling the shots. It adds up to a huge task for Offaly's defence. If they are under pressure at the back, it doesn't get much better for the rest of the team.

John McDermott and Nigel Crawford may be coming back to form rather slowly but it's unlikely that Jim an Grennan and Ronan Mooney will have much change to spare from the dealings.

Offaly will hope to make an impression in the half forwards and, although Nigel Nestor is a rookie centre back, it's worth bearing in mind that he had never played inter-county defence before giving a near man-of-the-match display at wing back against Dublin three years ago.

Two years ago, Barry Callaghan was stuck in at centre back for the meeting of the two counties and gave an exceptional display. The full back line is unchanged and, whereas Darren Fay is, like McDermott, returning to full match fitness, he has always well contained Roy Malone.

Meath haven't hit their stride yet. Their ambitions for the season wouldn't allow for it. Yet Offaly are not exhibiting signs of a team with the self-belief or momentum necessary to exploit any shortfall in Meath's capacity.

At full stretch 12 months ago, Offaly couldn't make it happen and there's been nothing since to suggest that they're in a better position to do so tomorrow.