Ireland needing luck of the draw to avoid big European teams in World Cup playoffs

The Celtic neighbours will probably feel the same about the Republic of Ireland, but Scotland, or even better Wales, are the ideal playoff opposition on October 11th to secure qualification for next year’s World Cup.

Bosnia and Herzegovina are by some distance the worst of nine remaining European nations hoping to reach the tournament in Australia and New Zealand but it would be a major surprise if they reach the second round of the playoffs, where Ireland, Switzerland and Iceland lie in wait.

Ideally, Switzerland will be paired with Iceland in Friday’s lunchtime (12.30pm) draw as that would remove the possibility of Vera Pauw’s squad needing to beat a low ranked non-European side at the intercontinental qualifiers in New Zealand next February.

Wales in Tallaght would do nicely. Or an occasion to savour at Hampden Park or Cardiff City stadium.

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Pauw will be pleased to see her native the Netherlands qualify directly, after sneaking past Iceland on Thursday night in Utrecht thanks to Esmee Brugts’s 93rd-minute header, but Irish victories in Helsinki and a famous draw in Gothenburg last March ensures that the Katie McCabe led team will embrace any situation.

“Yeah, and [Sweden] were second in the world,” said Pauw following Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat of Slovakia in Senec. “But to be realistic, you want to have a lower ranked team. But you cannot tell, we just need to wait.”

Only three of the nine remaining sides – Wales, Portugal and Bosnia – are ranked below Ireland so the draw is littered with perilous situations; a slice of luck is needed to avoid travelling to Switzerland, Portugal, Belgium, Iceland or Austria.

Three nations will remain on October 11th. The top two, based on current points and the result of their second-round tie, go directly to the World Cup. The third best finisher must win another do-or-die fixture in New Zealand at a mini-tournament that acts as a dry run for the main event next summer – winter in the southern hemisphere.

If points, goal difference and the number of goals scored cannot separate them, goals scored away from home will be added up. Failing that, it comes down to the number of wins, so it is worth noting that a penalty shoot-out victory in the playoffs is only counted as a draw.

World Cup playoffs

Seeds 1-3 receive a bye into second round

1 Switzerland

Fifa ranking: 21

To be avoided. Finished two points behind Italy in Group G, despite beating the Azzurri 2-1 in Palermo last year, before finishing third in the Euros pool of death behind Netherlands and Sweden, having drawn with Portugal.

19 points, +19 goal difference, 23 goals scored.

2 Iceland

Fifa ranking: 14

Following a disappointing Euros, when they were eliminated after drawing with France, Belgium and Italy, the Icelanders were cruelly dropped into the playoffs by the Dutch. Ireland knows plenty about them having lost two friendlies in Reykjavik last year. Another team to dodge.

18 points, +22 goal difference, 25 goals scored.

3 Ireland

Fifa ranking: 26

17 points, +22 goal difference, 26 goals scored

Seeds 4-9 must play a first-round play-off

4 Austria

Fifa ranking: 20

Wiped the floor with Group D also-rans Luxembourg, North Macedonia and Latvia to compile an enormous goal advantage. And despite dropping points in Belfast, they only conceded three goals against the mighty England over two meetings. Germany beat them 2-0 in the Euros quarter-final but Ireland do not want a showdown in Wiener Neustadt.

16 points, +28 goal difference, 34 goals scored

5 Belgium

Fifa ranking: 19

The Red Flames were unable to slow Norway’s progress to the World Cup but they did beat Italy to reach the Euros quarter-final where Sweden had their number. Ruthless goalscorers in Tessa Wullaert, Janice Cayman and Tine De Caigny could prove too hot to handle.

16 points, +23 goal difference, 30 goals scored

6 Scotland

Fifa ranking: 23

Thumped 8-0 in Seville before a respectable 2-0 loss to Spain at Hampden Park – unlike the FAI, the Scottish FA sees the value of their women playing at the national stadium – with Ireland favouring a Celtic showdown in Glasgow above most other away ties.

16 points, +9 goal difference, 22 goals scored

7 Portugal

Fifa ranking: 27

Technically superb at the Euros, drawing with Switzerland, losing 3-2 to the Netherlands before Sweden beat them 5-0, they also lost twice to Germany in qualification but look capable of exposing Ireland’s tactical flaws, especially at home.

16 points, +9 goal difference, 18 goals scored

8 Wales

Fifa ranking: 30

Welsh manager Gemma Grainger will probably adopt a similar view, but they are Ireland’s ideal opponent after Bosnia and Herzegovina, having narrowly seen off Slovenia and Greece to finish second in Group I behind France. Beatable, even in Cardiff.

14 points, +8 goal difference, 13 goals scored

9 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Fifa ranking: 63

Benefited from Russia’s expulsion to stumble out of Group E, losing 8-0 away and 3-0 at home against an ordinary Danish side, so every team in round one wants a trip to Zenica for an easy win. As a result, Ireland almost certainly won’t meet them.

11 points, -8 goal difference, 9 goals scored