SOCCER ANALYST: By hook or by crook I expect Ireland to win tonight. After all, the manager is lucky

WHEN I read about Michalis Konstantinou being suspended for tonight’s game I began to think that maybe there is something in this theory about Giovanni Trapattoni being a lucky manager.

It’s been a constant theme since he took over, from us getting to play Georgia on neutral territory at the start of the campaign, to this, Cyprus being without their all-time leading scorer, and one of the players who got two against us three years ago. Well, no apologies, I think we’ve been short of luck for a while, so you grab it when it comes your way, make the most of it.

True, we’d had a few bad days before the game in Cyprus three years ago, but that night was the worst I could ever remember. What was worst of all was the nature of it: we were a shambles, we were ripped apart, it was a complete humiliation.

And if you recall the number of chances Cyprus missed it actually could have been a whole lot worse.

But as a player you try not to dwell on these things too much, the games come so thick and fast you have plenty of chances to put things right.

And once the players take to the field tonight – especially John O’Shea, Richard Dunne, Kevin Kilbane, Aiden McGeady, Robbie Keane and Damien Duff, who all started that night in Nicosia – they won’t really think back to what happened before, they’ll get on with it.

But trust me, as they were preparing for this game they’ll have remembered that they went through hell that time, even the supporters turned on them, which, generally, was unheard of.

For that reason, if I was Trapattoni, I’d probably let those “survivors” do the team talk tonight. I suspect that they might just “encourage” their team-mates to be up for it, and to be wary of the threat Cyprus can pose at home.

If anything, then, what happened three years ago should give us a little more resolve than usual. I think it’s unlikely we’ll be taking them for granted this time.

We have, though, a completely different mindset now: we’re a team, we’re very difficult to beat, the situation has changed utterly since then.

And there are no excuses. We’ve had relatively few injury worries ahead of the game, Seán St Ledger being the only real concern, so we’re fit, fresh and haven’t played too much football.

Yes, of course, Cyprus won’t be easy to beat on home turf. Italy didn’t get their winner until injury time a year ago, but I still believe everything has fallen in to place ahead of this game – and I think we’ll win. It might be by the odd goal, but we can do it. I have no doubt.

The only thing not in our favour is the heat, but even that is not the problem that it used to be, players are better conditioned now, and much more care is taken to ensure they are re-hydrated in difficult conditions.

Trapattoni, need it be said, is cautious by nature, and I expect his team to start cautiously tonight. Others might feel we should go for it from the off, start with a really positive line-up, start as you mean to go on. But I don’t think that’s how he’ll see it, it’s not his style. He’d be quite happy to go in at 0-0 at half-time, and then go for it in the last 20 minutes or half an hour.

He’ll want to play the game in sections – first 20 minutes, half an hour don’t concede; after that try and play our football and impose ourselves on the game and, then, if it’s still 0-0 with half an hour to go, send the cavalry on.

That could be Caleb Folan, Stephen Hunt or Aiden McGeady, depending on who he starts with, but he’ll have attacking options on the bench if he needs to use them.

So, yes, I expect us to start off a little defensively, 4-4-2, two lines of four, not giving the Cypriots any encouragement, working our socks off in every single position, making them work hard for their possession and forcing them in to mistakes. That’s the Trapattoni way.

If we want to keep our hopes of winning the group alive then, needless to say, we really have to win tonight.

First place in the group is a possibility, but not a probability. But beat Cyprus and there’s a chance.

I wouldn’t rule out Italy slipping up against Georgia tonight – it’s unlikely, but not impossible.

We’ll see.

Of course every cliché in the book remains true about Italy, “they always do enough”, but they are beatable.

So, a win over Cyprus tonight – and I think we’ll do it, by hook or by crook – and that game against the Italians in Dublin next month will, to say the least, be interesting. And maybe luck will be on our side, again.