Seville has the ability to upset the applecart

RACING IRISH DERBY PREVIEW:REPORTS INDICATE it is unlikely Queen Elizabeth will be at the Curragh tomorrow but the important thing for the 2011 Dubai Duty Irish Derby is that her horse Carlton House will be.

Ireland’s premier €1.2 million classic would be a comparatively hard-sell without the first runner owned by the British monarch in an Irish classic. As it is, on the back of the queen’s historic visit to Ireland last month, a victory for the warm favourite would be a perfect PR result. In purely racing terms though, it could pay to side with Seville’s capacity to upset the PR applecart.

Aidan O’Brien’s domination of the Irish Derby in recent years has resulted in a certain predictability coming to be associated with Irish racing’s flagship event but the champion trainer’s unparalleled ability to get it right at the Curragh means he is pursuing a sixth success in a row tomorrow – and a ninth in all – with a four-strong team.

They are led by Treasure Beach who came within a whisker of serving up a 25 to 1 shock in the Epsom Derby when only Pour Moi’s dramatic late-surge prevented Colm O’Donoghue’s mount from winning. He is joined this weekend by Memphis Tennessee and Seville, fourth and 10th respectively at Epsom, and by Roderic O’Connor, the Irish Guineas hero who subsequently failed to fire in the French Derby.

Doubts about Roderic O’Connor’s stamina were hardly allayed by his display at Chantilly so it is easy to see why punters appear to have sided with Treasure Beach as the Ballydoyle number one. However, both he and Memphis Tennessee looked to get the run of the race at Epsom so it may be unwise to take the value of that form strictly at face-value.

That certainly appears to be the tack being taken with Carlton House who has three parts of a length to make up on Treasure Beach but has still dominated the ante-post betting this week on the basis that he was unlucky at Epsom. Ryan Moore will certainly be keen to have another crack off the royal runner who he felt was baulked by outsiders at a critical time coming around Tattenham Corner.

How that squares with Pour Moi coming from even further back is debatable but what is completely factual is that Carlton House lost a shoe inside the final furlong. He nevertheless has a couple of lengths in hand of his compatriot Native Khan, on whom Johnny Murtagh is seeking a fifth Irish Derby victory.

It is a remarkable 17 years since a horse trained in Britain won the Irish Derby, 25 since Carlton House’s trainer Michael Stoute landed the third of his three wins in the race, and 30 years since the first of them with Shergar.

Stoute’s decision to come here with the royal runner looks significant but even allowing for trouble in running, and the lost shoe, for most of the straight at Epsom Carlton House looked set to reel in the Ballydoyle pace-setters only to flatten out in the closing stages. His sire, Street Cry, is best known for 10 furlong runners and Carlton House is plenty short enough in the betting for a colt not absolutely sure to relish the Curragh’s stiff stamina test.

Seville in contrast ran no sort of race at Epsom and was patently all-at-sea on the undulations. He is also held by the favourite on Dante form. But Seville gives the impression of a colt who will thrive on the Curragh’s mile and a half. He is also ridden by Seamus Heffernan whose two previous victories came on Soldier Of Fortune and Frozen Fire, both beaten badly at Epsom.

It might not mean the most glamorous result, but it could be the profitable one.

Brian O'Connor's tips

1. Seville.

2. Carlton House.

3. Native Khan.